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Forecasting measures of inflation for the Estonian economy

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Author Info
Agostino Consolo ()
Abstract

The aim of this paper is to forecast some of the most important measures of inflation of the Estonian economy by making use of linear and non-linear models. Results from comparing classes of optimal models are similar to those in the forecasting literature. In particular, there are gains from using more sophisticated methods such as factor analysis and time-varying parameters methods. Model discrimination is based on evaluation criteria which are computed by a real-time dynamic estimation procedure. Moreover, forecasts uncertainty is appropriately taken into account: Fan Charts can exhaustively describe the final output for what concerns out-of-sample forecasting.

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File URL: http://www.eestipank.info/pub/en/dokumendid/publikatsioonid/seeriad/uuringud/_2006/_3_2006/_wp_306.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Bank of Estonia in its series Bank of Estonia Working Papers with number 2006-03.

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Length: 41 pages
Date of creation: 10 Oct 2006
Date of revision: 12 Nov 2006
Publication status: published
Handle: RePEc:eea:boewps:wp2006-03

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Estonia bld. 13, 15095 Tallinn, ESTONIA
Phone: +3726680719
Fax: +3726680900
Email:
Web page: http://www.bankofestonia.info
More information through EDIRC

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Postal: Estonia bld. 13, 15095 Tallinn, ESTONIA
Email:

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Peeter Luikmel).

Related research
Keywords: Estonian Economy forecasting inflation modelling

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Gordon, Robert J, 1997. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and Its Implications for Economic Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 11-32, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Rita S. Chu & Charles Steindel, 2000. "The unreliability of inflation indicators," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Apr. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jonas D. M. Fisher & Chin Te Liu & Ruilin Zhou, 2002. "When can we forecast inflation?," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q I, pages 32-44. [Downloadable!]
  4. Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2002. "Instability and Non-Linearity in the EMU," CEPR Discussion Papers 3312, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Andrew Atkeson & Lee E. Ohanian., 2001. "Are Phillips curves useful for forecasting inflation?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-11. [Downloadable!]
  6. Carlo Ambrogio Favero & Massimilano Marcellino & Francesca Neglia, . "Principal components at work: The empirical analysis of monetary policy with large datasets," Working Papers 223, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Kazimi, Camilla & Brownstone, David, 1999. "Bootstrap confidence bands for shrinkage estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 99-127, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1996. "Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(1), pages 11-30, January.
    Other versions:
  9. Kevin J. Lansing, 2002. "Can the Phillips curve help forecast inflation?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Oct 4. [Downloadable!]
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