Forecasting measures of inflation for the Estonian economy
AbstractThe aim of this paper is to forecast some of the most important measures of inflation of the Estonian economy by making use of linear and non-linear models. Results from comparing classes of optimal models are similar to those in the forecasting literature. In particular, there are gains from using more sophisticated methods such as factor analysis and time-varying parameters methods. Model discrimination is based on evaluation criteria which are computed by a real-time dynamic estimation procedure. Moreover, forecasts uncertainty is appropriately taken into account: Fan Charts can exhaustively describe the final output for what concerns out-of-sample forecasting.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bank of Estonia in its series Bank of Estonia Working Papers with number 2006-03.
Length: 41 pages
Date of creation: 10 Oct 2006
Date of revision: 12 Nov 2006
Publication status: published
Postal: Estonia bld. 13, 15095 Tallinn, ESTONIA
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2006-11-04 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2006-11-04 (Central Banking)
- NEP-ECM-2006-11-04 (Econometrics)
- NEP-FOR-2006-11-04 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2006-11-04 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2006-11-04 (Monetary Economics)
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