Bootstrap joint prediction regions
AbstractMany statistical applications require the forecast of a random variable of interest over several periods into the future. The sequence of individual forecasts, one period at a time, is called a path forecast, where the term path refers to the sequence of individual future realizations of the random variable. The problem of constructing a corresponding joint prediction region has been rather neglected in the literature so far: such a region is supposed to contain the entire future path with a prespecified probability. We develop bootstrap methods to construct joint prediction regions. The resulting regions are proven to be asymptotically consistent under a mild high-level assumption. We compare the finitesample performance of our joint prediction regions to some previous proposals via Monte Carlo simulations. An empirical application to a real data set is also provided.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of Economics - University of Zurich in its series ECON - Working Papers with number 064.
Date of creation: Feb 2012
Date of revision: May 2013
Generalized error rates; path forecast; simultaneous prediction intervals;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-03-08 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2012-03-08 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ETS-2012-03-08 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-FOR-2012-03-08 (Forecasting)
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