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Labor reallocation over the business cycle: new evidence from internal migration

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Author Info
Raven E. Saks
Abigail Wozniak

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Abstract

This paper establishes the cyclical properties of a novel measure of worker reallocation: long-distance migration rates within the U.S. This internal migration offers a bird's eye view of worker reallocation in the economy, as long-distance migrants often change jobs or employment status. We examine gross migration patterns during the entire postwar era using historical reports of the Current Population Survey, and supplement this analysis with statistics compiled by the Internal Revenue Service on inter-state and inter-metropolitan population flows since 1975. We find that internal migration within the U.S. is strongly procyclical, even after accounting for variation in relative local economic conditions. This procyclicality is common across most major demographic and labor force groups, although it is strongest for younger workers. Our findings suggest that cyclical fluctuations in internal migration are driven by economy-wide changes in the net cost to worker reallocation with a major role for the job finding rate of young workers.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 2007-32.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2007-32

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Related research
Keywords: Migration; Internal - United States ; Business cycles;

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  1. William Milne, 1993. "Macroeconomic Influences on Migration," Regional Studies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 27(4), pages 365-373, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Steven J. Davis & R. Jason Faberman & John Haltiwanger, 2006. "The Flow Approach to Labor Markets: New Data Sources and Micro-Macro Links," NBER Working Papers 12167, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Richard Rogerson & Robert Shimer & Randall Wright, 2005. "Search-Theoretic Models of the Labor Market: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 43(4), pages 959-988, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Robert E. Hall, 2005. "Job Loss, Job Finding, and Unemployment in the U.S. Economy Over the Past Fifty Years," NBER Working Papers 11678, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Ricardo J. Caballero & Mohamad L. Hammour, 2005. "The Cost of Recessions Revisited: A Reverse-Liquidationist View," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 72(2), pages 313-341, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Shigeru Fujita & Garey Ramey, 2006. "The cyclicality of job loss and hiring," Working Papers 06-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Michael W. Elsby & Ryan Michaels & Gary Solon, 2007. "The Ins and Outs of Cyclical Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 12853, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Timothy Bartik, 1993. "Who Benefits from Local Job Growth: Migrants or the Original Residents?," Regional Studies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 27(4), pages 297-311, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Bruce Fallick & Charles A. Fleischman, 2004. "Employer-to-employer flows in the U.S. labor market: the complete picture of gross worker flows," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-34, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  10. Pissarides, Christopher A & Wadsworth, Jonathan, 1989. "Unemployment and the Inter-regional Mobility of Labour," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(397), pages 739-55, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Robert B. Barsky & Gary Solon, 1989. "Real Wages Over The Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 2888, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Solon, Gary & Barsky, Robert & Parker, Jonathan A, 1994. "Measuring the Cyclicality of Real Wages: How Important Is Composition Bias?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(1), pages 1-25, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Robert E. Hall, 2003. "Modern Theory of Unemployment Fluctuations: Empirics and Policy Applications," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 145-150, May. [Downloadable!]
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