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Net Migration and State Labor Market Dynamics

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  • Joshua Hojvat Gallin

    (Federal Reserve Board)

Abstract

Existing empirical estimates of net migration models are not identified because they lack an explicit measure of expected future conditions. I find that using actual one-period-ahead net migration at the state level to control for expectations reduces the strength of the relationship between current wages and net migration by more than one-third. I use the case of Michigan to show how existing empirical models mischaracterize the response of migration to shocks that are expected to be transitory. I add migration to a labor market model and simulate responses to permanent and transitory demand shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Joshua Hojvat Gallin, 2004. "Net Migration and State Labor Market Dynamics," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 22(1), pages 1-22, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jlabec:v:22:y:2004:i:1:p:1-22
    DOI: 10.1086/380401
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