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Why are population flows so persistent?

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Author Info
Jordan Rappaport

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Abstract

Extending the neoclassical growth model to allow for mobile labor, small shocks to a local economy's productivity or quality of life along with small frictions to capital and labor mobility effect extended equilibrium transition paths. During such transitions local population may be far away from its steady-state level but local wages and housing prices remain relatively close to their steady-state levels. Exogenous technological progress together with a partially elastic local housing supply imply steady-state population flows from high productivity to high quality-of-life economies. In addition, consumption smoothing causes steady-state population density to be history dependent. Empirical evidence suggests that some time around 1930, the United States experienced a shock which realigned productivity across its localities and which set in motion extended population flows. The data further suggest that some time around 1960,> quality-of-life considerations became more important in driving population flows and that a capital shock temporarily drove population flows during the 1970s.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in its series Research Working Paper with number 99-13.

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Date of creation: 1999
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedkrw:99-13

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Related research
Keywords: Population ; Emigration and immigration;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Conley, T. G., 1999. "GMM estimation with cross sectional dependence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 1-45, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Jordan M. Rappaport, 2000. "How Does Labor Mobility Affect Income Convergence?," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0124, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Charles M. Tiebout, 1956. "A Pure Theory of Local Expenditures," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64, pages 416. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Glaeser, E.L. & Scheinkman, J.A., 1993. "Economic Growth in a Cross-Section of Cities," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1645, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
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  5. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-71, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1991. "Convergence across States and Regions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(1991-1), pages 107-182. [Downloadable!]
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  7. King, Robert G & Rebelo, Sergio T, 1993. "Transitional Dynamics and Economic Growth in the Neoclassical Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(4), pages 908-31, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Jordan Rappaport, 2000. "How does openness to capital flows affect growth?," Research Working Paper RWP 00-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
  9. Caselli, Francesco & Esquivel, Gerardo & Lefort, Fernando, 1996. " Reopening the Convergence Debate: A New Look at Cross-Country Growth Empirics," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 363-89, September.
  10. Jordan Rappaport, 1999. "Local Growth Theory," CID Working Papers 19, Center for International Development at Harvard University. [Downloadable!]
  11. Jordan Rappaport, 1999. "Local Growth Empirics," CID Working Papers 23, Center for International Development at Harvard University. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1992. "Regional Evolutions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(1992-1), pages 1-76. [Downloadable!]
  13. Gyourko, Joseph & Tracy, Joseph, 1991. "The Structure of Local Public Finance and the Quality of Life," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(4), pages 774-806, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Robert J. Barro & Paul Romer, 1993. "Economic Growth," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number barr93-1, September.
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    • Robert J. Barro & Paul M. Romer, 1991. "Economic Growth," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number barr91-1, September.
  15. Blanchard, Olivier & Rhee, Changyong & Summers, Lawrence, 1993. "The Stock Market, Profit, and Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(1), pages 115-36, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Tjalling C. Koopmans, 1963. "On the Concept of Optimal Economic Growth," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 163, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  17. Gyourko, Joseph & Kahn, Matthew & Tracy, Joseph, 1999. "Quality of life and environmental comparisons," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: P. C. Cheshire & E. S. Mills (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 37, pages 1413-1454 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Gyourko, Joseph & Tracy, Joseph, 1989. "The Importance of Local Fiscal Conditions in Analyzing Local Labor Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(5), pages 1208-31, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Greenwood, Michael J, et al, 1991. "Migration, Regional Equilibrium, and the Estimation of Compensating Differentials," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1382-90, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Blomquist, Glenn C & Berger, Mark C & Hoehn, John P, 1988. "New Estimates of Quality of Life in Urban Areas," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(1), pages 89-107, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Islam, Nazrul, 1995. "Growth Empirics: A Panel Data Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(4), pages 1127-70, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Roback, Jennifer, 1982. "Wages, Rents, and the Quality of Life," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1257-78, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Mueser Peter R. & Graves Philip E., 1995. "Examining the Role of Economic Opportunity and Amenities in Explaining Population Redistribution," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 176-200, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Hayashi, Fumio, 1982. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average q: A Neoclassical Interpretation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 213-24, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Shubham Chaudhuri & John McLaren, 2007. "Some Simple Analytics of Trade and Labor Mobility," NBER Working Papers 13464, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Stephen Cameron & Shubham Chaudhuri & John McLaren, 2007. "Trade Shocks and Labor Adjustment: Theory," NBER Working Papers 13463, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. David C Maré & Wai Kin Choy, 2001. "Regional Labour Market Adjustment and the Movements of People: A Review," Treasury Working Paper Series 01/08, New Zealand Treasury. [Downloadable!]
  4. Stephen Cameron & Shubham Chaudhuri & John McLaren, 2002. "Mobility costs and the dynamics of labor market adjustment to external shocks: Theory," Discussion Papers 0102-53, Columbia University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. repec:bep:maccon:v:2:y:2002:i:1:p:1049-1049 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Jordan Rappaport & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 2001. "The U.S. as a coastal nation," Research Working Paper RWP 01-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
  7. repec:bep:maccon:v:8:y:2008:i:1:p:1627-1627 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Jordan Rappaport, 2003. "Moving to nice weather," Research Working Paper RWP 03-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Jordan Rappaport, 2005. "The shared fortunes of cities and suburbs," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 33-60. [Downloadable!]
  10. Young, Andrew & Higgins, Matthew & Levy, Daniel, 2006. "Heterogeneous Convergence," MPRA Paper 954, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Paul Cavelaars & Jeroen Hessel, 2007. "Regional Labour Mobility in the European Union: Adjustment Mechanism or Disturbance?," DNB Working Papers 137, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  12. Jordan M. Rappaport, 2000. "How Does Labor Mobility Affect Income Convergence?," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0124, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-18.

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