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Local Growth Empirics

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Author Info
Jordan Rappaport

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Abstract

Using a newly constructed data panel on U.S. locality attributes, this paper sketches four sets of empirical facts on economic growth across U.S. counties. A first set of facts focuses on the time series and cross-correlation properties of local economic growth as measured by net migration, per capita income growth, and housing price growth. A second and a third set of facts focus on the geographical correlates of local growth over the 20th century and the non-government correlates of local growth over the period 1970 to 1990. A fourth set of facts focuses on the government fiscal policy correlates of local growth. Local economic growth from 1970 to 1990 is strongly negatively correlated with financial measures of initial local government size. This negative correlation is extremely robust across alternative specifications; an extensive set of control variables eliminates any obvious omitted variable bias; there is no indication of reverse causality; and the result is not driven by the elderly. Controlling for local government size, local growth is positively correlated with expenditures on elementary and secondary school education; it is negatively correlated with the percent of local tax revenue derived from personal income and selective sales taxes. A neoclassical model of local growth provides a framework for interpreting these correlations.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Center for International Development at Harvard University in its series CID Working Papers with number 23.

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Date of creation: Jul 1999
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Handle: RePEc:wop:cidhav:23

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Related research
Keywords: Economic Growth; Factor Mobility; Migration; Compensating Differentials; Geography; Local Government;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
O51 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - U.S.; Canada
R11 - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Analysis of Growth, Development, and Changes
R50 - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics - - Regional Government Analysis - - - General
J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

Cited by:
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  1. Edward L. Glaeser & Jed Kolko & Albert Saiz, 2000. "Consumer City," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1901, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Higgins, Matthew & Young, Andrew & Levy, Daniel, 2009. "Federal, State, and Local Governments: Evaluating their Separate Roles in US Growth," MPRA Paper 13094, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Jordan Rappaport, 1999. "Why are population flows so persistent?," Research Working Paper 99-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Paul_Cheshire & Stefano_Magrini, 2004. "Population Growth in European Cities: weather matters – but only nationally," Urban/Regional 0410001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  5. Cheshire, Paul C. & Magrini, Stefano, 2002. "The distinctive determinants of European urban growth: Does one size fit all?," ERSA conference papers ersa02p100, European Regional Science Association. [Downloadable!]
  6. Jordan Rappaport, 1999. "How does labor mobility affect income convergence?," Research Working Paper 99-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Alberto Alesina & Eliana La Ferrara, 2004. "Ethnic Diversity and Economic Performance," Development Working Papers 193, Centro Studi Luca d\'Agliano, University of Milano. [Downloadable!]
  8. J Vernon Henderson & James Davis, 2004. "The Agglomeration of Headquarters," Working Papers 04-02, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Matthew Higgins & Daniel Levy & Andrew Young, 2005. "Growth and Convergence across the US: Evidence from County-Level Data," Macroeconomics 0505009, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Charles Plaigin, 2009. "Exploratory study on the presence of cultural and institutional growth spillovers," Working Papers DULBEA 09-03.RS, Université libre de Bruxelles, Department of Applied Economics (DULBEA). [Downloadable!]
  11. Young, Andrew & Higgins, Matthew & Levy, Daniel, 2006. "Heterogeneous Convergence," MPRA Paper 954, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Albert Saiz, 2003. "Immigration and housing rents in American cities," Working Papers 03-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Paul Cheshire & Stefano Magrini, 2006. "European Urban Growth: Now for Some Problems of Spaceless and Weightless Econometrics," ERSA conference papers ersa06p156, European Regional Science Association. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Christoph A. Schaltegger & Benno Torgler, 2006. "Growth effects of public expenditure on the state and local level: evidence from a sample of rich governments," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 38(10), pages 1181-1192, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Paul Cheshire & Stefano Magrini, 2005. "Population Growth in European Cities - Weather Matters, but only Nationally," ERSA conference papers ersa05p12, European Regional Science Association. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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