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International demand and liquidity shocks in a SVAR model of the Australian economy

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Renée Fry

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Abstract

A structural vector autoregressive model of the Australian economy that allows for international shocks from the USA, Japan as well as world commodity prices is specified and estimated for the period 1979-1999. A block exogenous structure linking the three countries is imposed. The international linkages are modelled using a factor structure to circumvent problems from estimating large scale dynamic models. The factors are estimated recursively using a Kalman filter and are found to represent aggregate demand and liquidity shocks for the USA and Japan respectively. The key empirical result is the USA shocks are the dominant source of international shocks on the Australian economy with the Japanese economy having a dampening effect on the USA shocks. The empirical results also show that Australian monetary policy responds to domestic conditions rather than international monetary policy.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 36 (2004)
Issue (Month): 8 (May)
Pages: 849-863
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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:36:y:2004:i:8:p:849-863

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

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  2. Andrea Brischetto & Graham Voss, 1999. "A Structural Vector Autoregression Model of Monetary Policy in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp1999-11, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  3. Dungey, Mardi & Pagan, Adrian, 2000. "A Structural VAR Model of the Australian Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 76(235), pages 321-42, December.
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  6. Kasa, Ken & Popper, Helen, 1997. "Monetary Policy in Japan: A Structural VAR Analysis," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 275-295, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Anthony Garratt & Kevin Lee & M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin, 2003. "A Long run structural macroeconometric model of the UK," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(487), pages 412-455, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Basile, Amy & Joyce, Joseph P, 2001. "Asset Bubbles, Monetary Policy and Bank Lending in Japan: An Empirical Investigation," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 33(13), pages 1737-44, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Henry, Olan T & Summers, Peter M, 2000. "Australian Economic Growth: Nonlinearities and International Influences," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 76(235), pages 365-73, December.
  14. M. Hashem Pesaran & Til Schuermann & Scott M. Weiner, 2002. "Modeling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 01-38, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
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  15. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1988. "A Probability Model of The Coincident Economic Indicators," NBER Working Papers 2772, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Edda Claus & Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry, 2006. "Monetary Policy In Illiquid Markets: Options For A Small Open Economy," CAMA Working Papers 2006-17, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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