A new turning point signalling system using the Markov switching model with application to Japan, the USA and Australia
AbstractA new business cycle turning point signalling system is proposed and examined by using Japanese, US and Australian composite indexes of economic activity. Time varying transition probabilities in a Markov regime-switching model are used as the basis of the signalling system. The performance of the system is satisfactory, though its reliability varies between peaks and troughs and across countries. Based on data up until May 1998, the system suggests the absence of turning points in any of the three countries in 1998.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.
Volume (Year): 33 (2001)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Masaki Katsuura, 2012. "Lead–lag relationship between household cultural expenditures and business cycles," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 49-65, February.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.