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Go long or short in pyramids? News from the Egyptian stock market

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Author Info

  • Billmeier, Andreas
  • Massa, Isabella

Abstract

Similar to other emerging economies, the Egyptian stock market has recently experienced a remarkable run-up but also a major downturn. This paper analyzes the stock market from two angles. First, it compares the performance of the major stock price index with its underlying fundamentals. Second, it explores the relationship between the Egyptian and other stock markets. The paper finds that (i) there is some evidence against a stable relationship between the Egyptian index and its fundamental value; and (ii) short-term correlations and long-term cointegrating relations provide conflicting signals on the value of Egyptian stocks as a means of diversification.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Review of Financial Analysis.

Volume (Year): 17 (2008)
Issue (Month): 5 (December)
Pages: 949-970

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Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:17:y:2008:i:5:p:949-970

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620166

Related research

Keywords: Egypt Stock market Performance Cointegration Fundamentals;

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References

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  1. Chris Brooks & Apostolos Katsaris, 2003. "Rational Speculative Bubbles: An Empirical Investigation of the London Stock Exchange," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(4), pages 319-346, October.
  2. Nikkinen, Jussi & Omran, Mohammad M. & Sahlstrom, Petri & Aijo, Janne, 2008. "Stock returns and volatility following the September 11 attacks: Evidence from 53 equity markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 27-46.
  3. Diba, Behzad T & Grossman, Herschel I, 1988. "The Theory of Rational Bubbles in Stock Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(392), pages 746-54, September.
  4. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-36, June.
  5. Thomas Lagoarde-Segot & Brian M. Lucey, 2007. "Capital Market Integration in the Middle East and North Africa," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 43(3), pages 34-57, June.
  6. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  7. Johansen, S., 1999. "A Bartlett Correction Factor for Tests on the Cointegrating Relations," Economics Working Papers eco99/10, European University Institute.
  8. Mauro Mecagni & Maged Sawky Sourial, 1999. "The Egyptian Stock Market - Efficiency Tests and Volatility Effects," IMF Working Papers 99/48, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Martin Petri & Tahsin Saadi-Sedik, 2006. "The Jordanian Stock Market--Should You Invest in it for Risk Diversification or Performance?," IMF Working Papers 06/187, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Mark T. Hon & Jack Strauss & Soo-Keong Yong, 2004. "Contagion in financial markets after September 11: myth or reality?," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association & Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 27(1), pages 95-114.
  11. Diba, Behzad T & Grossman, Herschel I, 1988. "Explosive Rational Bubbles in Stock Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 520-30, June.
  12. Ito, Harumi & Lee, Darin, 2005. "Assessing the impact of the September 11 terrorist attacks on U.S. airline demand," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 75-95.
  13. Topol, Richard, 1991. "Bubbles and Volatility of Stock Prices: Effect of Mimetic Contagion," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(407), pages 786-800, July.
  14. Omran, Mohammed & Pointon, John, 2001. "Does the inflation rate affect the performance of the stock market? The case of Egypt," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 263-279, September.
  15. Marsh, Terry A & Merton, Robert C, 1986. "Dividend Variability and Variance Bounds Tests for the Rationality ofStock Market Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(3), pages 483-98, June.
  16. Omran, M.F., 2007. "An analysis of the capital asset pricing model in the Egyptian stock market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(5), pages 801-812, February.
  17. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 2002. "Asset Price Bubbles and Stock Market Interlinkages," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 02-22, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  18. Kleidon, Allan W, 1986. "Variance Bounds Tests and Stock Price Valuation Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 953-1001, October.
  19. Tirole, Jean, 1985. "Asset Bubbles and Overlapping Generations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1499-1528, November.
  20. Andreas Billmeier & Isabella Massa, 2007. "What Drives Stock Market Development in the Middle East and Central Asia--Institutions, Remittances, or Natural Resources?," IMF Working Papers 07/157, International Monetary Fund.
  21. Kearney, Colm & Lucey, Brian M., 2004. "International equity market integration: Theory, evidence and implications," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 571-583.
  22. Syriopoulos, Theodore, 2007. "Dynamic linkages between emerging European and developed stock markets: Has the EMU any impact?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 41-60.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Andreas Billmeier & Isabella Massa, 2007. "What Drives Stock Market Development in the Middle East and Central Asia--Institutions, Remittances, or Natural Resources?," IMF Working Papers 07/157, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Independent Evaluation Group, 2009. "Egypt - Positive Results from Knowledge Sharing and Modest Lending : An IEG Country Assistance Evaluation 1999-2007," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 13534, October.
  3. Jahan-Parvar, Mohammad R. & Waters, George A., 2010. "Equity price bubbles in the Middle Eastern and North African Financial markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 39-48, March.
  4. Rania Al Mashat & Andreas Billmeier, 2008. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Egypt," Working Papers 411, Economic Research Forum, revised Jun 2008.
  5. Randa Alami, 2009. "On The Current Links Capital Markets And Investment In Mena Countries," Working Papers 163, Department of Economics, SOAS, University of London, UK.
  6. Fernando Lefort & Rodrigo Gonzalez, 2011. "Holding Company Discounts and Business Groups Optimal Bailout of Subsidiaries," Working Papers 34, Facultad de Economía y Empresa, Universidad Diego Portales.

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