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Are the effects of monetary policy shocks big or small?

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  • Olivier Coibion

    ()
    (Department of Economics, College of William and Mary)

Abstract

This paper studies the small estimated effects of monetary policy shocks from standard VAR’s versus the large effects from the Romer and Romer (2004) approach. The differences are driven by three factors: the different contractionary impetus, the period of reserves targeting and lag length selection. Accounting for these factors, the real effects of policy shocks are consistent across approaches and most likely medium. Alternative monetary policy shock measures from estimated Taylor rules also yield medium-sized real effects and indicate that the historical contribution of monetary policy shocks to real fluctuations has been significant, particularly during the 1970s and early 1980s.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, College of William and Mary in its series Working Papers with number 90.

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Length: 51 pages
Date of creation: 09 May 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cwm:wpaper:90

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Keywords: Monetary Policy; Shocks; Taylor rule;

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  1. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2004. "Measuring the effects of monetary policy: a factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) approach," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Jon Faust & Eric Swanson & and Jonathan H. Wright, 2002. "Identifying vars based on high frequency futures data," International Finance Discussion Papers 720, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1997. "Monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability: Evidence and some theory," Economics Working Papers 350, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised May 1999.
  4. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2010. "Monetary Policy, Trend Inflation and the Great Moderation:An Alternative Interpretation," Working Papers 94, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary.
  5. Boivin, Jean & Giannoni, Marc, 2006. "Has Monetary Policy Become More Effective?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5463, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Blanchard, O., 1993. "Consumption and the Recession of 1990-1991," Working papers 93-5, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  7. Stacey L. Schreft, 1990. "Credit controls: 1980," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Nov, pages 25-55.
  8. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-69, June.
  9. Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2001. "Do We Really Know that Oil Caused the Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternative," NBER Working Papers 8389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2005. "Reduced-Rank Identification of Structural Shocks in VARs," Macroeconomics 0512011, EconWPA.
  11. Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "What Does Monetary Policy Do?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(2), pages 1-78.
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Cited by:
  1. Daniel Leigh & Andrea Pescatori & Jaime Guajardo, 2011. "Expansionary Austerity New International Evidence," IMF Working Papers 11/158, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Cloyne, James & Hürtgen, Patrick, 2014. "The macroeconomic effects of monetary policy: a new measure for the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 493, Bank of England.
  3. Kliem, Martin & Kriwoluzky, Alexander, 2013. "Reconciling narrative monetary policy disturbances with structural VAR model shocks?," Discussion Papers 23/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  4. Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Koustas, Dmitri, 2013. "Amerisclerosis? The Puzzle of Rising U.S. Unemployment Persistence," IZA Discussion Papers 7715, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  5. John Silvia & Lorenz Kueng & Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Innocent Bystanders? Monetary Policy and Inequality in the U.S," IMF Working Papers 12/199, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Ron Alquist & Olivier Coibion, 2014. "Commodity-Price Comovement and Global Economic Activity," NBER Working Papers 20003, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Ron Alquist & Olivier Coibion, 2013. "The Comovement in Commodity Prices," IMF Working Papers 13/140, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Nicolaas Groenewold, 2012. "Australia and the GFC: Saved by Astute Fiscal Policy?," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 12-28, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  9. Eric Monnet, 2012. "Monetary policy without interest rates. Evidence from France’s Golden Age (1948-1973) using a narrative approach," Working Papers 0032, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
  10. Cordella, Tito & Federico, Pablo & Vegh, Carlos & Vuletin, Guillermo, 2014. "Reserve requirements in the brave new macroprudential world," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6793, The World Bank.

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