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Taylor rule estimation by OLS

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  • Carvalho, Carlos
  • Nechio, Fernanda
  • Tristão, Tiago

Abstract

We argue for Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimation of Taylor rules despite an endogeneity bias. To that end, we show analytically in the three-equation New Keynesian model that the OLS bias is proportional to the fraction of the variance of regressors due to monetary shocks. Using simulations, we show this relationship also holds in a quantitative model of the U.S. economy. Since monetary shocks explain only a small fraction of the variance of typical Taylor rule regressors, the bias tends to be small. Estimating a standard Taylor rule using U.S. data, we find quite similar OLS and Instrumental Variables estimates.

Suggested Citation

  • Carvalho, Carlos & Nechio, Fernanda & Tristão, Tiago, 2021. "Taylor rule estimation by OLS," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 140-154.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:124:y:2021:i:c:p:140-154
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2021.10.010
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    Cited by:

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    2. Istrefi, Klodiana & Hack, Lukas & Meier, Matthias, 2023. "Identification of Systematic Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 17999, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Economou, Fotini & Panagopoulos, Yannis, 2023. "Assessing the credit creation process under the Basel III framework: Some evidence from the Eurozone," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    4. Thang, Doan Ngoc & Anh, Pham Thi Hoang & Long, Trinh & Dong, Do Phy & Dat, Luong Van, 2022. "Monetary Stance and Favorableness of Monetary Policy in the Media: The Case of Viet Nam," ADBI Working Papers 1325, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    5. Ferri, Piero & Cristini, Annalisa & Tramontana, Fabio, 2023. "Meta-models of the Phillips curve and income distribution," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 215-232.
    6. Donato Masciandaro, 2023. "How Elastic and Predictable Money Should Be: Flexible Monetary Policy Rules from the Great Moderation to the New Normal Times (1993-2023)," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 23196, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    7. Bordo, Michael & Istrefi, Klodiana, 2023. "Perceived FOMC: The making of hawks, doves and swingers," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 125-143.
    8. Kwok Ping Tsang & Zichao Yang, 2023. "Agree to Disagree: Measuring Hidden Dissents in FOMC Meetings," Papers 2308.10131, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2024.
    9. Xiekui Zhang & Peiyao Liu & Hongfei Zhu, 2022. "The Impact of Industrial Intelligence on Energy Intensity: Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-16, June.
    10. Gokan, Yoichi & Turnovsky, Stephen J., 2023. "Taylor rules: Consequences for wealth and income inequality," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    11. Foroni, Claudia & Furlanetto, Francesco, 2022. "Explaining Deviations from Okun's Law," CEPR Discussion Papers 17369, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Filardo, Andrew & Hubert, Paul & Rungcharoenkitkul, Phurichai, 2022. "Monetary policy reaction function and the financial cycle," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    13. Marwil J. Dávila-Fernández & Germana Giombini & Edgar J. Sánchez-Carrera, 2023. "Climateflation and monetary policy in an environmental OLG growth model," Department of Economics University of Siena 905, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    14. Christina Anderl & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2024. "Time-varying parameters in monetary policy rules: a GMM approach," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 51(9), pages 148-176, January.
    15. Alex Hsu & Francisco Palomino & Liang Qian, 2023. "Gone with the Vol: A Decline in Asset Return Predictability During the Great Moderation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(5), pages 3025-3047, May.
    16. Hüpper, Florian & Kempa, Bernd, 2023. "Inflation targeting and inflation communication of the Federal Reserve: Words and deeds," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    17. Curi, Claudia & Murgia, Lucia Milena, 2023. "Forecast Targeting and Financial Stability: Evidence from the European Central Bank and Bank of England," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Taylor rule; OLS; GMM; Endogeneity bias; Weak instruments; New Keynesian models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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