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Dynamic spillover analysis of international and Turkish food prices

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  • Hasan Murat Ertuğrul
  • Ünal Seven

Abstract

This study analyses the dynamic spillover relationship between international and Turkish food prices by employing Markov Switching Regression (MSR) and Dynamic Conditional Correlation Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (DCC‐GARCH) models to monthly data from 2003 to 2019. We also investigate the factors that cause a price difference between Turkish and international food markets by employing alternative econometric models, including Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL), Fully Modified OLS (FMOLS), Dynamic OLS (DOLS) and MSR. We find structural shifts in the dynamics of the international/domestic food price relationship, and the relationship varies across the low and high volatility regimes. We also find that the exchange rate significantly affects the growing difference between Turkish and international food prices, while oil prices reduce that difference. Our results point out essential policy recommendations for developing food policies and ensuring sustainability in prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Hasan Murat Ertuğrul & Ünal Seven, 2023. "Dynamic spillover analysis of international and Turkish food prices," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 1918-1928, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:ijfiec:v:28:y:2023:i:2:p:1918-1928
    DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.2517
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    Cited by:

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    2. Kılıç Depren, Serpil & Kartal, Mustafa Tevfik & Ertuğrul, Hasan Murat & Depren, Özer, 2022. "The role of data frequency and method selection in electricity price estimation: Comparative evidence from Turkey in pre-pandemic and pandemic periods," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 186(C), pages 217-225.
    3. Kübra Akyol Özcan, 2023. "Food Price Bubbles: Food Price Indices of Turkey, the FAO, the OECD, and the IMF," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-21, June.

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