IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/riibaf/v47y2019icp174-194.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Interdependence among agricultural commodity markets, macroeconomic factors, crude oil and commodity index

Author

Listed:
  • Fernandez-Diaz, Jose M.
  • Morley, Bruce

Abstract

This paper examines the degree of interdependence between three agricultural commodity prices, crude oil price returns, macroeconomic variables and the S&P GSCI commodity returns index. We apply the Aielli (2013) cDCC model using monthly data from 1982 to 2012 to estimate the dynamic correlations of the returns series and endogenously detect structural instability of the correlations. Our results indicate that crude oil price returns present statistically significant dynamic correlations with all the macroeconomic variables and the GSCI index. Additionally, we detect structural changes in these dynamic correlations mainly associated with the financial crisis of 2008. We find evidence of volatility spillover between crude oil and maize, but not among oil with soybean and sugar markets. This can be explained by an increasing interdependence between crude oil and maize price returns induced by the introduction of biofuel policies. Our results also show a significance degree of interdependence between soybeans with the US exchange rate and sugar with global economic activity. Nevertheless, only the GSCI index has significant dynamic correlations with crude oil price returns and we find no significant correlation between the GSCI with any of the agricultural price returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernandez-Diaz, Jose M. & Morley, Bruce, 2019. "Interdependence among agricultural commodity markets, macroeconomic factors, crude oil and commodity index," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 174-194.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:47:y:2019:i:c:p:174-194
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2018.07.009
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0275531917308279
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ribaf.2018.07.009?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David Zilberman & Gal Hochman & Deepak Rajagopal & Steve Sexton & Govinda Timilsina, 2013. "The Impact of Biofuels on Commodity Food Prices: Assessment of Findings," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 95(2), pages 275-281.
    2. Christopher L. Gilbert, 2010. "How to Understand High Food Prices," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 398-425, June.
    3. repec:dau:papers:123456789/14980 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Trujillo-Barrera, Andres & Mallory, Mindy L. & Garcia, Philip, 2012. "Volatility Spillovers in U.S. Crude Oil, Ethanol, and Corn Futures Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 37(2), pages 1-16, August.
    5. Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2015. "Structural breaks, dynamic correlations, asymmetric volatility transmission, and hedging strategies for petroleum prices and USD exchange rate," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 46-60.
    6. Yannick Le Pen & Benoît Sévi, 2013. "Futures Trading and the Excess Comovement of Commodity Prices," Working Papers halshs-00793724, HAL.
    7. Mensi, Walid & Beljid, Makram & Boubaker, Adel & Managi, Shunsuke, 2013. "Correlations and volatility spillovers across commodity and stock markets: Linking energies, food, and gold," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 15-22.
    8. Selien De Schryder and Gert Peersman, 2015. "The U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate and the Demand for Oil," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    9. Angus Deaton, 1999. "Commodity Prices and Growth in Africa," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 23-40, Summer.
    10. Gardebroek, Cornelis & Hernandez, Manuel A., 2013. "Do energy prices stimulate food price volatility? Examining volatility transmission between US oil, ethanol and corn markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 119-129.
    11. Creti, Anna & Joëts, Marc & Mignon, Valérie, 2013. "On the links between stock and commodity markets' volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 16-28.
    12. Pindyck, Robert S & Rotemberg, Julio J, 1990. "The Excess Co-movement of Commodity Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(403), pages 1173-1189, December.
    13. repec:dau:papers:123456789/11382 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Serra, Teresa, 2011. "Volatility spillovers between food and energy markets: A semiparametric approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1155-1164.
    15. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-1069, June.
    16. Byrne, Joseph P. & Fazio, Giorgio & Fiess, Norbert, 2013. "Primary commodity prices: Co-movements, common factors and fundamentals," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 16-26.
    17. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2008. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Real Commodity Prices," NBER Chapters, in: Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, pages 291-333, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. repec:ipg:wpaper:2013-019 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Nicola, Francesca de & De Pace, Pierangelo & Hernandez, Manuel A., 2016. "Co-movement of major energy, agricultural, and food commodity price returns: A time-series assessment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 28-41.
    20. Gian Piero Aielli, 2013. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: On Properties and Estimation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 282-299, July.
    21. Teresa Serra & José M. Gil, 2013. "Price volatility in food markets: can stock building mitigate price fluctuations?," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 40(3), pages 507-528, July.
    22. Daniel A. Sumner, 2009. "Recent Commodity Price Movements in Historical Perspective," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1250-1256.
    23. Xiangdong Long & Liangjun Su & Aman Ullah, 2011. "Estimation and Forecasting of Dynamic Conditional Covariance: A Semiparametric Multivariate Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 109-125, January.
    24. Tomoaki Nakatani & Timo Terasvirta, 2009. "Testing for volatility interactions in the Constant Conditional Correlation GARCH model," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 12(1), pages 147-163, March.
    25. Chunrong Ai & Arjun Chatrath & Frank Song, 2006. "On the Comovement of Commodity Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 88(3), pages 574-588.
    26. Luc Bauwens & Sébastien Laurent & Jeroen V. K. Rombouts, 2006. "Multivariate GARCH models: a survey," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 79-109, January.
    27. Deb, Partha & Trivedi, Pravin K & Varangis, Panayotis, 1996. "The Excess Co-movement of Commodity Prices Reconsidered," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(3), pages 275-291, May-June.
    28. Nazlioglu, Saban & Erdem, Cumhur & Soytas, Ugur, 2013. "Volatility spillover between oil and agricultural commodity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 658-665.
    29. Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2014. "Dynamic spillovers among major energy and cereal commodity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 225-243.
    30. Serra, Teresa & Zilberman, David, 2013. "Biofuel-related price transmission literature: A review," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 141-151.
    31. Leybourne, S. Y. & Lloyd, T. A. & Reed, G. V., 1994. "The excess comovement of commodity prices revisited," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 22(11), pages 1747-1758, November.
    32. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
    33. Matteo Manera, Marcella Nicolini, and Ilaria Vignati, 2013. "Financial Speculation in Energy and Agriculture Futures Markets: A Multivariate GARCH Approach," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    34. Turhan, M. Ibrahim & Sensoy, Ahmet & Hacihasanoglu, Erk, 2014. "A comparative analysis of the dynamic relationship between oil prices and exchange rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 397-414.
    35. Feng Wu & Zhengfei Guan & Robert J. Myers, 2011. "Volatility spillover effects and cross hedging in corn and crude oil futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(11), pages 1052-1075, November.
    36. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1986. "Expectations and Commodity Price Dynamics: The Overshooting Model," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 68(2), pages 344-348.
    37. repec:ipg:wpaper:19 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Grossmann, Axel & Kim, Jintae, 2022. "The impact of U.S. dollar movements and U.S. dollar states on non-perishable commodity prices," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    2. Abu-Ghunmi, Diana & Corbet, Shaen & Larkin, Charles, 2020. "An international analysis of the economic cost for countries located in crisis zones," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    3. Su, Zhi & Mo, Xuan & Yin, Libo, 2021. "Oil market uncertainty and excess returns on currency carry trade," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    4. Cheng, Natalie Fang Ling & Hasanov, Akram Shavkatovich & Poon, Wai Ching & Bouri, Elie, 2023. "The US-China trade war and the volatility linkages between energy and agricultural commodities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    5. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gabauer, David & Umar, Zaghum, 2021. "Crude Oil futures contracts and commodity markets: New evidence from a TVP-VAR extended joint connectedness approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    6. Dinh, Theu & Goutte, Stéphane & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Walther, Thomas, 2022. "Economic drivers of volatility and correlation in precious metal markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    7. Bruce Morley, 2019. "The Effects of Commodity Discoveries on Small Open Economies: Empirical Evidence from the Falkland Islands," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-10, October.
    8. Chang, Chiu-Lan & Fang, Ming, 2022. "The connectedness between natural resource commodities and stock market indices: Evidence from the Chinese economy," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    9. Awaworyi-Churchill, Sefa & Inekwe, John & Ivanovski, Kris & Smyth, Russell, 2022. "Breaks, trends and correlations in commodity prices in the very long-run," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    10. Krzysztof Drachal, 2019. "Analysis of Agricultural Commodities Prices with New Bayesian Model Combination Schemes," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-23, September.
    11. Boako, Gideon & Alagidede, Imhotep Paul & Sjo, Bo & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2020. "Commodities price cycles and their interdependence with equity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    12. Eissa, Mohamad Abdelaziz & Al Refai, Hisham, 2019. "Modelling the symmetric and asymmetric relationships between oil prices and those of corn, barley, and rapeseed oil," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    13. Cao, Yan & Cheng, Sheng, 2021. "Impact of COVID-19 outbreak on multi-scale asymmetric spillovers between food and oil prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    14. Ma, Yan-Ran & Ji, Qiang & Wu, Fei & Pan, Jiaofeng, 2021. "Financialization, idiosyncratic information and commodity co-movements," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    15. Yunus Kilic & Mehmet Fatih Bugan, 2016. "Are Islamic Equity Markets “Safe Havens”? Testing the Contagion Effect using DCC-GARCH," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 6(4), pages 167-176, October.
    16. Cheng, Sheng & Han, Lingyu & Cao, Yan & Jiang, Qisheng & Liang, Ruibin, 2022. "Gold-oil dynamic relationship and the asymmetric role of geopolitical risks: Evidence from Bayesian pdBEKK-GARCH with regime switching," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    17. Zhuo Chen & Bo Yan & Hanwen Kang, 2023. "Price bubbles of agricultural commodities: evidence from China’s futures market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(1), pages 195-222, January.
    18. Liya Hau & Huiming Zhu & Muhammad Shahbaz & Ke Huang, 2023. "Quantile Dependence between Crude Oil and China’s Biofuel Feedstock Commodity Market," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-17, June.
    19. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Lin, Jia-Juan, 2019. "Can the VAR model outperform MRS model for asset allocation in commodity market under different risk preferences of investors?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pal, Debdatta & Mitra, Subrata K., 2019. "Correlation dynamics of crude oil with agricultural commodities: A comparison between energy and food crops," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 453-466.
    2. Nicola, Francesca de & De Pace, Pierangelo & Hernandez, Manuel A., 2016. "Co-movement of major energy, agricultural, and food commodity price returns: A time-series assessment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 28-41.
    3. Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2014. "Dynamic spillovers among major energy and cereal commodity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 225-243.
    4. Mensi, Walid & Tiwari, Aviral & Bouri, Elie & Roubaud, David & Al-Yahyaee, Khamis H., 2017. "The dependence structure across oil, wheat, and corn: A wavelet-based copula approach using implied volatility indexes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 122-139.
    5. Chia-Lin Chang & Yiying Li & Michael McAleer, 2018. "Volatility Spillovers between Energy and Agricultural Markets: A Critical Appraisal of Theory and Practice," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-19, June.
    6. Helmut Herwartz & Alberto Saucedo, 2020. "Food–oil volatility spillovers and the impact of distinct biofuel policies on price uncertainties on feedstock markets," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 51(3), pages 387-402, May.
    7. Hasanov, Akram Shavkatovich & Do, Hung Xuan & Shaiban, Mohammed Sharaf, 2016. "Fossil fuel price uncertainty and feedstock edible oil prices: Evidence from MGARCH-M and VIRF analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 16-27.
    8. Cornelis Gardebroek & Manuel A. Hernandez & Miguel Robles, 2016. "Market interdependence and volatility transmission among major crops," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 47(2), pages 141-155, March.
    9. Rossen, Anja, 2015. "What are metal prices like? Co-movement, price cycles and long-run trends," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 255-276.
    10. Caporin, Massimiliano & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Arif, Muhammad & Hasan, Mudassar & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Hussain Shahzad, Syed Jawad, 2021. "Asymmetric and time-frequency spillovers among commodities using high-frequency data," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    11. repec:ipg:wpaper:19 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Yannick Le Pen & Benoît Sévi, 2013. "Futures Trading and the Excess Comovement of Commodity Prices," Working Papers halshs-00793724, HAL.
    13. Karel Janda & Ladislav Kristoufek, 2019. "The relationship between fuel and food prices: Methods, outcomes, and lessons for commodity price risk management," CAMA Working Papers 2019-20, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    14. repec:ipg:wpaper:2013-019 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Basher, Syed Abul & Sadorsky, Perry, 2016. "Hedging emerging market stock prices with oil, gold, VIX, and bonds: A comparison between DCC, ADCC and GO-GARCH," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 235-247.
    16. Zhuo Chen & Bo Yan & Hanwen Kang, 2022. "Dynamic correlation between crude oil and agricultural futures markets," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(3), pages 1798-1849, August.
    17. M. Thenmozhi & Shipra Maurya, 2020. "Crude Oil Volatility Transmission Across Food Commodity Markets: A Multivariate BEKK-GARCH Approach," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 20(2), pages 131-164, August.
    18. Gozgor, Giray & Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin, 2016. "Commodity markets volatility transmission: Roles of risk perceptions and uncertainty in financial markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 35-45.
    19. Colin A. Carter & Gordon C. Rausser & Aaron Smith, 2011. "Commodity Booms and Busts," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 87-118, October.
    20. repec:dau:papers:123456789/11382 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Yip, Pick Schen & Brooks, Robert & Do, Hung Xuan & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2020. "Dynamic volatility spillover effects between oil and agricultural products," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    22. Anthony N. Rezitis & Panagiotis Andrikopoulos & Theodoros Daglis, 2024. "Assessing the asymmetric volatility linkages of energy and agricultural commodity futures during low and high volatility regimes," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(3), pages 451-483, March.
    23. Manisha Pradhananga, 2016. "Financialization and the rise in co-movement of commodity prices," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(5), pages 547-566, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:47:y:2019:i:c:p:174-194. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ribaf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.