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Modelling the symmetric and asymmetric relationships between oil prices and those of corn, barley, and rapeseed oil

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  • Eissa, Mohamad Abdelaziz
  • Al Refai, Hisham

Abstract

This study, using linear and nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Models, investigates the dynamic linkages between oil prices and agricultural commodities. The results from the linear model show that barley, corn and rapeseed oil do not in the long run co-move with oil prices. When we use the nonlinear ARDL Model to overcome the symmetry problem and re-estimate the dynamic relationship, our results show that barley, corn and rapeseed oil co-move with oil prices in the long run; thus, the nonlinear ARDL better specifies the dynamic relationship. The effects of the dynamic multipliers show that barley, corn, and rapeseed oil prices respond rapidly and strongly to the cyclical downturns of oil prices in the short run, but fully adjust to the new equilibrium when the process is relatively prolonged.

Suggested Citation

  • Eissa, Mohamad Abdelaziz & Al Refai, Hisham, 2019. "Modelling the symmetric and asymmetric relationships between oil prices and those of corn, barley, and rapeseed oil," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:64:y:2019:i:c:s030142071930460x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2019.101511
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Nonlinear ARDL; Agricultural commodities; Oil prices; Asymmetric cointegration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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