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Asymmetric effects of geopolitical risks and uncertainties on green bond markets

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  • Tang, Yumei
  • Chen, Xihui Haviour
  • Sarker, Provash Kumer
  • Baroudi, Sarra

Abstract

This paper examines the asymmetric effects of the United States Economic Policy Uncertainty (USEPU), Geopolitical Threats (GPRT), Geopolitical Acts (GPRA), and the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil on Green Bond returns. Our study analyses USEPU, GPRT, GPRA, WTI, and Green Bond monthly data from September 2012 to August 2022. By applying the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lags (NARDL) model, our empirical evidence shows that in the short run, the return on green bonds is negatively affected by an increase in USEPU and GPRA positively affected by an increase in GPRT and WTI. In the long run, the return on green bonds is negatively affected by an increase in USEPU, GPRA, and GPRT but positively affected by WTI. Considering the climate crisis, looking at these findings in the context of green bonds is essential to entice green investments. Policymakers should use our results for a policy design to mitigate green bond market volatility caused by external uncertainties and risks. Furthermore, we conclude that uncertainties should be considered when investing in green bonds and managing investment portfolios.

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  • Tang, Yumei & Chen, Xihui Haviour & Sarker, Provash Kumer & Baroudi, Sarra, 2023. "Asymmetric effects of geopolitical risks and uncertainties on green bond markets," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:189:y:2023:i:c:s0040162523000331
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2023.122348
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    Keywords

    Economic policy uncertainty; Geopolitical threats; Geopolitical acts; WTI; Green bond; NARDL;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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