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The Impact of the Oil Sector on Commodity Prices: Correlation or Causation?

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  • Saghaian, Sayed H.
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    Abstract

    The interconnections of agriculture and energy markets have increased through the rise in the new biofuel agribusinesses and the oil–ethanol–corn linkages. The question is whether these linkages have a causal structure by which oil prices affect commodity prices and through these links, instability is transferred from energy markets to already volatile agricultural markets. In this article, we present empirical results using contemporary time-series analysis and Granger causality supplemented by a directed graph theory modeling approach to identify the links and plausible contemporaneous causal structures among energy and commodity variables. The results show that although there is a strong correlation among oil and commodity prices, the evidence for a causal link from oil to commodity prices is mixed.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Southern Agricultural Economics Association in its journal Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics.

    Volume (Year): 42 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 03 (August)
    Pages:

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    Handle: RePEc:ags:joaaec:92582

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    Related research

    Keywords: ethanol prices; crude oil prices; corn prices; soybean prices; wheat prices; causal structure; Agribusiness; Crop Production/Industries; Environmental Economics and Policy; Production Economics; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q11; Q13; Q42; Q48;

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    1. von Braun, Joachim & Ahmed, Akhter & Asenso-Okyere, Kwadwo & Fan, Shenggen & Gulati, Ashok & Hoddinott, John & Pandya-Lorch, Rajul & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Ruel, Marie & Torero, Maximo & van Rheenen, Te, 2008. "High food prices: The what, who, and how of proposed policy actions," Policy briefs 1A, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. von Braun, Joachim & Torero, Maximo, 2009. "Exploring the Price Spike," Choices, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 24(1).
    3. Siebert, John W. & Hagerman, Amy D. & Park, John L., 2008. "Virtual Investment Concepts and the Ethanol Industry," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association (IAMA), vol. 11(4).
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    Cited by:
    1. McPhail, Lihong Lu, 2011. "Assessing the impact of US ethanol on fossil fuel markets: A structural VAR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1177-1185.
    2. Krätschell, Karoline & Schmidt, Torsten, 2013. "Long-run trends or short-run fluctuations What establishes the correlation between oil and food prices?," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79798, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Kristoufek, Ladislav & Janda, Karel & Zilberman, David, 2012. "Relationship Between Prices of Food, Fuel and Biofuel," 131st Seminar, September 18-19, 2012, Prague, Czech Republic 135793, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. Papież, Monika, 2014. "A dynamic analysis of causality between prices of corn, crude oil and ethanol," MPRA Paper 56540, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Nazlioglu, Saban, 2011. "World oil and agricultural commodity prices: Evidence from nonlinear causality," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 2935-2943, May.
    6. Serra, Teresa & Zilberman, David, 2013. "Biofuel-related price transmission literature: A review," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 141-151.
    7. Baffes, John & Dennis, Allen, 2013. "Long-term drivers of food prices," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6455, The World Bank.
    8. Aynur Pala, 2013. "Structural Breaks, Cointegration, and Causality by VECM Analysis of Crude Oil and Food Price," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 3(3), pages 238-246.
    9. Matthias Diermeier & Torsten Schmidt, 2012. "Oil Price Effects on Land Use Competition – An Empirical Analysis," Ruhr Economic Papers 0340, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    10. Bastianin, Andrea & Galeotti, Marzio & Manera, Matteo, 2014. "Causality and predictability in distribution: The ethanol–food price relation revisited," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 152-160.
    11. Hao, Na & Seong, Byeongchan & Park, Cheolwoo & Colson, Gregory & Karali, Berna & Wetzstein, Michael, 2013. "Drought, Biofuel, and Livestock," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 149957, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    12. Qiu, Cheng & Colson, Gregory & Wetzstein, Michael E., 2011. "Considering Macroeconomic Indicators in the Food versus Fuel Issues," 2011 Annual Meeting, July 24-26, 2011, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 103689, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    13. Karoline Krätschel & Torsten Schmidt, 2012. "Long-run Trends or Short-run Fluctuations – What Establishes the Correlation between Oil and Food Prices?The Interplay of Standardized Tests and Incentives – An Econometric Analysis with Data from," Ruhr Economic Papers 0357, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    14. Kristoufek, Ladislav & Janda, Karel & Zilberman, David, 2012. "Correlations between biofuels and related commodities before and during the food crisis: A taxonomy perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1380-1391.
    15. Abdullah, Ahmad Monir & Saiti, Buerhan & Masih, Abul Mansur M., 2014. "Diversification in Crude Oil and Other Commodities: A Comparative Analysis," MPRA Paper 56988, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Pozo, Veronica F. & Schroeder, Ted C., 2012. "Price and Volatility Spillover between Livestock and Related Commodity Markets," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124798, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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