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Is there co-movement of agricultural commodities futures prices and crude oil?

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  • Natanelov, Valeri
  • Alam, Mohammad J.
  • McKenzie, Andrew M.
  • Van Huylenbroeck, Guido
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    Abstract

    Even though significant attempts have appeared in literature, the current perception of co-movement of commodity prices appear inadequate and static. In particular we focus on price movements between crude oil futures and a series of agricultural commodities and gold futures. A comparative framework is applied to identify changes in relationships through time and various cointegration methodologies and causality tests are employed. Our results indicate that co-movement is a dynamic concept and that some economic and policy development may change the relationship between commodities. Furthermore we show that biofuel policy buffers the co-movement of crude oil and corn futures until the crude oil prices surpass a certain threshold.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.

    Volume (Year): 39 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 9 (September)
    Pages: 4971-4984

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:9:p:4971-4984

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

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    Keywords: Commodities futures Co-movement Threshold cointegration;

    References

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    Cited by:
    1. Chrz, Stepan & Hruby, Zdenek & Janda, Karel & Kristoufek, Ladislav, 2013. "Provazanost trhu potravin, biopaliv a fosilnich paliv
      [Interconnections within food, biofuel, and fossil fuel markets]
      ," MPRA Paper 43958, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Papież, Monika, 2014. "A dynamic analysis of causality between prices of corn, crude oil and ethanol," MPRA Paper 56540, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Riadh Aloui & Mohamed Safouane Ben Aissa & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2013. "A wavelet-based copula approach for modeling market risk in agricultural commodity markets," Working Papers 04, Development and Policies Research Center (DEPOCEN), Vietnam.
    4. Matteo Manera & Marcella Nicolini & Ilaria Vignati, 2012. "Returns in Commodities Futures Markets and Financial Speculation: A Multivariate GARCH Approach," Working Papers 2012.23, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    5. Zhang, Chuanguo & Chen, Xiaoqing, 2014. "The impact of global oil price shocks on China’s bulk commodity markets and fundamental industries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 32-41.
    6. Natanelov, Valeri & McKenzie, Andrew M. & Van Huylenbroeck, Guido, 2013. "Crude oil–corn–ethanol – nexus: A contextual approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 504-513.
    7. Gbadebo Oladosu & Siwa Msangi, 2013. "Biofuel-Food Market Interactions: A Review of Modeling Approaches and Findings," Agriculture, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 3(1), pages 53-71, February.
    8. Śmiech, Sławomir, 2014. "Co-movement of commodity prices – results from dynamic time warping classification," MPRA Paper 56546, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Abdullah, Ahmad Monir & Saiti, Buerhan & Masih, Abul Mansur M., 2014. "Diversification in Crude Oil and Other Commodities: A Comparative Analysis," MPRA Paper 56988, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Serra, Teresa & Zilberman, David, 2013. "Biofuel-related price transmission literature: A review," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 141-151.

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