Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Food versus Fuel: Causality and Predictability in Distribution

Contents:

Author Info

  • Andrea Bastianin
  • Marzio Galeotti
  • Matteo Manera

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between biofuels and commodity food prices in the U.S. from a new perspective. While a large body of literature has tried to explain the linkages between sample means and volatilities associated with ethanol and agricultural price returns, little is known about their whole distributions. We focus on predictability in distribution by asking whether ethanol returns can be used to forecast different parts of field crops returns distribution, or vice versa. Density forecasts are constructed using Conditional Autoregressive Expectile models estimated with Asymmetric Least Squares. Forecast evaluation relies on quantile-weighed scoring rules, which identify regions of the distribution of interest to the analyst. Results show that both the centre and the left tail of the ethanol returns distribution can be predicted by using field crops returns. On the contrary, there is no evidence that ethanol can be used to forecast any region of the field crops distribution.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://dipeco.economia.unimib.it/repec/pdf/mibwpaper241.pdf
File Function: First version, 2013
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 241.

as in new window
Length: 35
Date of creation: Mar 2013
Date of revision: Mar 2013
Handle: RePEc:mib:wpaper:241

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Piazza Ateneo Nuovo, 1 Milano 20126
Phone: +39 02 6448 3089
Fax: +39 02 6448 3085
Email:
Web page: http://dipeco.economia.unimib.it
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Biofuels; Ethanol; Field Crops; Density Forecasting; Granger Causality; Quantiles;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Peter C.B.Phillips & Jun Yu, 2009. "Dating the Timeline of Financial Bubbles During the Subprime Crisis," Working Papers CoFie-07-2009, Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics.
  2. Giuseppe Piroli & Pavel Ciaian & d'Artis Kancs, 2011. "Land Use Change Impacts of Biofuels: Near-VAR Evidence from the US," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2011_11, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mib:wpaper:241. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Roberto Reale).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.