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Dating the Timeline of Financial Bubbles During the Subprime Crisis

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  • Peter C. B. Phillips

    (Singapore Management University)

  • Jun Yu

Abstract

A recursive regression methodology is used to analyze the bubble characteristics of various financial time series during the subprime crisis. The methods provide a technology for identifying bubble behavior and consistent dating of their origination and collapse. Seven relevant financial series are investigated, including three financial assets (the Nasdaq index, home price index and asset-backed commercial paper), two commodities (the crude oil price and platinum price), one bond rate (Baa), and one exchange rate (Pound/USD). Statistically significant bubble characteristics are found in all of these series. The empirical estimates of the origination and collapse dates suggest an interesting migration mechanism among the financial variables : a bubble first emerged in the equity market during mid-1995 lasting to the end of 2000, followed by a bubble in the real estate market between January 2001 and July 2007 and in the mortgage market between November 2005 and August 2007. After the subprime crisis erupted, the phenomenon migrated selectively into the commodity market and the foreign exchange market, creating bubbles which subsequently burst at the end of 2008, just as the effects on the real economy and economic growth became manifest. Our empirical estimates of the origination and collapse dates support strongly the general features of the scenario of this crisis put forward in a recent study by Caballero, Farhi and Gourinchas (2008).

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by East Asian Bureau of Economic Research in its series Finance Working Papers with number 23051.

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Date of creation: Jan 2009
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Handle: RePEc:eab:financ:23051

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Related research

Keywords: Financial bubbles; Crashes; Date stamping; Explosive behavior; Mildly explosive process; Subprime crisis; Timeline.;

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  1. Diba, Behzad T & Grossman, Herschel I, 1988. "Explosive Rational Bubbles in Stock Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 520-30, June.
  2. Caballero, Ricardo & Farhi, Emmanuel & Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier, 2008. "Financial Crash, Commodity Prices and Global Imbalances," CEPR Discussion Papers 7064, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Ricardo J. Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2006. "An Equilibrium Model of Global Imbalances and Low Interest Rates," 2006 Meeting Papers 894, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  4. Peter C.B.Phillips & Yangru Wu & Jun Yu, 2009. "Explosive Behavior in the 1990s Nasdaq: When Did Exuberance Escalate Asset Values?," Working Papers CoFie-03-2008, Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics.
  5. Behzad T. Diba & Herschel I. Grossman, 1987. "Rational bubbles in stock prices?," Working Papers 87-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  6. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2001. "Stock Return Predictability: Is it There?," NBER Working Papers 8207, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 740R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Feb 1986.
  8. Peter C.B. Phillips & Tassos Magdalinos, 2008. "Unit Root and Cointegrating Limit Theory When Initialization Is in the Infinite Past," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1655, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  9. Phillips, Peter C.B. & Magdalinos, Tassos, 2007. "Limit theory for moderate deviations from a unit root," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 115-130, January.
  10. Dean Baker, 2002. "The Run-up in Home Prices: A Bubble," Challenge, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 45(6), pages 93-119, November.
  11. Evans, George W, 1991. "Pitfalls in Testing for Explosive Bubbles in Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 922-30, September.
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