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Unit Root Model Selection

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Author Info
Peter C.B. Phillips () (Cowles Foundation, Yale University)

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Abstract

Some limit properties for information based model selection criteria are given in the context of unit root evaluation and various assumptions about initial conditions. Allowing for a nonparametric short memory component, standard information criteria are shown to be weakly consistent for a unit root provided the penalty coefficient C_n -> infinity and C_n/n -> 0 as n -> infinity. Strong consistency holds when C_n/(loglog n)^3 -> infinity under conventional assumptions on initial conditions and under a slightly stronger condition when initial conditions are infinitely distant in the unit root model. The limit distribution of the AIC criterion is obtained.

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File URL: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/P/cd/d16b/d1653.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Cowles Foundation, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 1653.

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Length: 14 pages
Date of creation: May 2008
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Journal of the Japan Statistical Society (2008), 38(1): 65-74
Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1653

Note: CFP 1231.
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Postal: Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA
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Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA

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Related research
Keywords: AIC; Consistency; Model selection; Nonparametric; Unit root;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Phillips, Peter C B, 1996. "Econometric Model Determination," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 763-812, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Lai, T. L. & Wei, C. Z., 1982. "Asymptotic properties of projections with applications to stochastic regression problems," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 346-370, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Phillips, Peter C B & Ploberger, Werner, 1996. "An Asymptotic Theory of Bayesian Inference for Time Series," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 381-412, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Bent Nielsen, 2001. "Order determination in general vector autoregressions," Economics Papers 2001-W10, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
  6. Hirotugu Akaike, 1969. "Fitting autoregressive models for prediction," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 243-247, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Xu Cheng & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2009. "Cointegrating Rank Selection in Models with Time-Varying Variance," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1688, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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