IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/quaeco/v66y2017icp100-107.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Explosive rents: The real estate market dynamics in exuberance

Author

Listed:
  • Fabozzi, Frank J.
  • Xiao, Keli

Abstract

The interaction of the trading behavior of market participants in the housing and rental markets can result in a boom and bust in both markets. In this paper, we model real estate equilibrium with a focus on a short-run view and study the explosiveness in the rental market by analyzing the impact of housing market exuberance on rents. We then demonstrate the situation in which explosive behavior may appear in the rental market. The explosiveness in rents is tested based on samples from January 1991 to February 2015 in the U.S. housing market. Our results confirm the appearance of explosive rents during housing bubbles in five urban areas where explosive prices are also found, while no evidence of explosive rent can be found in the U.S. S&P/Case–Shiller Home Price Index-Composite 10.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabozzi, Frank J. & Xiao, Keli, 2017. "Explosive rents: The real estate market dynamics in exuberance," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 100-107.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:66:y:2017:i:c:p:100-107
    DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2017.07.006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1062976917302132
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.qref.2017.07.006?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Escobari, Diego & Jafarinejad, Mohammad, 2016. "Date stamping bubbles in Real Estate Investment Trusts," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 224-230.
    2. Dieci, Roberto & Westerhoff, Frank, 2016. "Heterogeneous expectations, boom-bust housing cycles, and supply conditions: A nonlinear economic dynamics approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 21-44.
    3. Edward L. Glaeser, Jed Kolko, and Albert Saiz, 2001. "Consumer city," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 1(1), pages 27-50, January.
    4. Eric J. Levin & Robert E. Wright, 1997. "Speculation in the Housing Market?," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 34(9), pages 1419-1437, August.
    5. Peter C. B. Phillips & Yangru Wu & Jun Yu, 2011. "EXPLOSIVE BEHAVIOR IN THE 1990s NASDAQ: WHEN DID EXUBERANCE ESCALATE ASSET VALUES?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(1), pages 201-226, February.
    6. Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 1997. "Booms and Busts in the UK Housing Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(445), pages 1701-1727, November.
    7. Mikhed, Vyacheslav & Zemcík, Petr, 2009. "Do house prices reflect fundamentals? Aggregate and panel data evidence," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 140-149, June.
    8. Peter C.B. Phillips, 2008. "Unit Root Model Selection," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1653, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    9. Peter C. B. Phillips & Jun Yu, 2011. "Dating the timeline of financial bubbles during the subprime crisis," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 2(3), pages 455-491, November.
    10. John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 195-228.
    11. Timothy R. Hodge & Daniel P. McMillen & Gary Sands & Mark Skidmore, 2017. "Assessment Inequity in a Declining Housing Market: The Case of Detroit," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 45(2), pages 237-258, April.
    12. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-1311, July.
    13. repec:arz:wpaper:eres2009-275 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Denise DiPasquale & William C. Wheaton, 1992. "The Markets for Real Estate Assets and Space: A Conceptual Framework," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 20(2), pages 181-198, June.
    15. Richard Arnott, 1995. "Time for Revisionism on Rent Control?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(1), pages 99-120, Winter.
    16. Denton Marks, 1984. "The Effect of Rent Control on the Price of Rental Housing: An Hedonic Approach," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 60(1), pages 81-94.
    17. Kim, Kyung-Hwan & Suh, Seoung Hwan, 1993. "Speculation and Price Bubbles in the Korean and Japanese Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 73-87, January.
    18. George Fallis & Lawrence B. Smith, 1985. "Price Effects of Rent Control on Controlled and Uncontrolled Rental Housing in Toronto: A Hedonic Index Approach," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 18(3), pages 652-659, August.
    19. Wu, Yangru, 1997. "Rational Bubbles in the Stock Market: Accounting for the U.S. Stock-Price Volatility," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(2), pages 309-319, April.
    20. Peter C. B. Phillips & Shuping Shi & Jun Yu, 2015. "Testing For Multiple Bubbles: Historical Episodes Of Exuberance And Collapse In The S&P 500," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56, pages 1043-1078, November.
    21. Simon Stevenson, 2008. "Modeling Housing Market Fundamentals: Empirical Evidence of Extreme Market Conditions," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 36(1), pages 1-29, March.
    22. Petr Zemcik & Vyacheslav Mikhed, 2009. "Do House Prices Reflect Fundamentals? Aggregate and Panel Data Evidence," ERES eres2009_275, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    23. Karsten Lieser & Alexander Groh, 2014. "The Determinants of International Commercial Real Estate Investment," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 611-659, May.
    24. Neil Crosby & Steven Devaney & Anupam Nanda, 2016. "Which Factors Drive Rental Depreciation Rates for Office and Industrial Properties?," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 38(3), pages 359-392.
    25. Eli Beracha & Ken H. Johnson, 2012. "Lessons from Over 30 Years of Buy versus Rent Decisions: Is the American Dream Always Wise?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 40(2), pages 217-247, June.
    26. Alexander Groh & Karsten Lieser, 2014. "The Determinants of International Commercial Real Estate Investment," Post-Print hal-02313080, HAL.
    27. Marks, Denton, 1984. "The effects of partial-coverage rent control on the price and quantity of rental housing," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 360-369, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Huerta-Sanchez, Daniel & Jafarinejad, Mohammad & Kim, Dongshin & Soyeh, Kenneth W., 2020. "Disentangling bubbles in equity REITs," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 357-367.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Efthymios Pavlidis & Alisa Yusupova & Ivan Paya & David Peel & Enrique Martínez-García & Adrienne Mack & Valerie Grossman, 2016. "Episodes of Exuberance in Housing Markets: In Search of the Smoking Gun," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 419-449, November.
    2. Sharma, Shahil & Escobari, Diego, 2018. "Identifying price bubble periods in the energy sector," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 418-429.
    3. Lee, Ji Hyung & Phillips, Peter C.B., 2016. "Asset pricing with financial bubble risk," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 590-622.
    4. Caspi, Itamar & Graham, Meital, 2018. "Testing for bubbles in stock markets with irregular dividend distribution," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 89-94.
    5. Michael Berlemann & Julia Freese & Sven Knoth, 2020. "Dating the start of the US house price bubble: an application of statistical process control," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(5), pages 2287-2307, May.
    6. Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Tsionas, Efthymios G. & Konstantakis, Konstantinos N., 2016. "Non-linearities in financial bubbles: Theory and Bayesian evidence from S&P500," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 61-70.
    7. Andreas Mense & Claus Michelsen & Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2019. "Rent Control, Market Segmentation, and Misallocation: Causal Evidence from a Large-Scale Policy Intervention," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1832, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    8. Xi Chen & Michael Funke, 2013. "Real-Time Warning Signs of Emerging and Collapsing Chinese House Price Bubbles," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 223(1), pages 39-48, February.
    9. Virtanen, Timo & Tölö, Eero & Virén, Matti & Taipalus, Katja, 2018. "Can bubble theory foresee banking crises?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 66-81.
    10. Tsai, I-Chun & Chiang, Shu-Hen, 2019. "Exuberance and spillovers in housing markets: Evidence from first- and second-tier cities in China," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 75-86.
    11. Mense, Andreas & Michelsen, Claus & Cholodilin, Konstantin A., 2017. "Empirics on the causal effects of rent control in Germany," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 24/2017, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    12. Wei-Fong Pan, 2019. "Detecting bubbles in China’s regional housing markets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 1413-1432, April.
    13. Basse, Tobias & Klein, Tony & Vigne, Samuel A. & Wegener, Christoph, 2021. "U.S. stock prices and the dot.com-bubble: Can dividend policy rescue the efficient market hypothesis?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    14. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Andreas Mense & Claus Michelsen, 2016. "Market Break or Simply Fake? Empirics on the Causal Effects of Rent Controls in Germany," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1584, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    15. Mense, Andreas & Michelsen, Claus & Kholodilin, Konstantin A., 2023. "Rent Control, Market Segmentation, and Misallocation: Causal Evidence from a Large-Scale Policy Intervention," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    16. Francisco Blasques & Siem Jan Koopman & Gabriele Mingoli, 2023. "Observation-Driven filters for Time-Series with Stochastic Trends and Mixed Causal Non-Causal Dynamics," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 23-065/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    17. Wegener, Christoph & Kruse, Robinson & Basse, Tobias, 2019. "The walking debt crisis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 382-402.
    18. Escobari, Diego & Garcia, Sergio & Mellado, Cristhian, 2017. "Identifying bubbles in Latin American equity markets: Phillips-Perron-based tests and linkages," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 90-101.
    19. Chan, Joshua C.C. & Santi, Caterina, 2021. "Speculative bubbles in present-value models: A Bayesian Markov-switching state space approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    20. Peter C. B. Phillips & Shuping Shi & Jun Yu, 2015. "Testing For Multiple Bubbles: Historical Episodes Of Exuberance And Collapse In The S&P 500," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1043-1078, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Rent explosiveness; Real estate bubbles; Housing market; Explosive behavior;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:66:y:2017:i:c:p:100-107. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620167 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.