Looking for Rational Bubbles in Agricultural Commodity Markets
AbstractIn this paper, we use a bootstrap methodology to helps us to compute the finite sample probability distribution of the asymptotic tests recently proposed in Phillips et al. (2009b) and Phillips and Yu (2009c). Simulation shows that the bootstrap methodology works well and allows us to identify explosive processes and collapsing bubbles. We apply the bootstrap procedure to the wheat and rough rice commodity prices. We find some evidence of price exuberance for both prices in the 2007-2008 period.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by European Association of Agricultural Economists in its series 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland with number 120377.
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Rational Speculative Bubbles; Bootstrap; Unit Root Tests; Commodity Prices.; Marketing; G14; Q14; C12; C15;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
- Q14 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Finance
- C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
- C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AGR-2012-02-20 (Agricultural Economics)
- NEP-ALL-2012-02-20 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2012-02-20 (Econometrics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Palm, Franz C. & Smeekes, Stephan & Urbain, Jean-Pierre, 2006.
"Bootstrap Unit Root Tests: Comparison and Extensions,"
015, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
- Franz C. Palm & Stephan Smeekes & Jean-Pierre Urbain, 2008. "Bootstrap Unit-Root Tests: Comparison and Extensions," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(2), pages 371-401, 03.
- Pindyck, Robert S., 1991.
"The present value model of rational commodity pricing,"
3354-91., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Pindyck, Robert S, 1993. "The Present Value Model of Rational Commodity Pricing," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(418), pages 511-30, May.
- Robert S. Pindyck, 1992. "The Present Value Model of Rational Commodity Pricing," NBER Working Papers 4083, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991.
"Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Campbell, J.Y. & Perron, P., 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomics should know about unit roots," Papers 360, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- Campbell, John & Perron, Pierre, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots," Scholarly Articles 3374863, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Evans, George W, 1991. "Pitfalls in Testing for Explosive Bubbles in Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 922-30, September.
- Nikolay Gospodinov & Serena Ng, 2013. "Commodity Prices, Convenience Yields, and Inflation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(1), pages 206-219, March.
- Gibson, Rajna & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1990. " Stochastic Convenience Yield and the Pricing of Oil Contingent Claims," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 959-76, July.
- Peter C.B. Phillips & Tassos Magdalinos, 2008.
"Unit Root and Cointegrating Limit Theory When Initialization Is in the Infinite Past,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1655, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Phillips, Peter C.B. & Magdalinos, Tassos, 2009. "Unit Root And Cointegrating Limit Theory When Initialization Is In The Infinite Past," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(06), pages 1682-1715, December.
- Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1987. "Commodity Futures Prices: Some Evidence on Forecast Power, Premiums,and the Theory of Storage," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(1), pages 55-73, January.
- Yoosoon Chang & Joon Y. Park, 2003. "A Sieve Bootstrap For The Test Of A Unit Root," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(4), pages 379-400, 07.
- Gourinchas, Pierre-Oliver & Farhi, Emmanuel & Caballero, Ricardo J., 2008.
"Financial Crash, Commodity Prices, and Global Imbalances,"
3229095, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Caballero, Ricardo & Farhi, Emmanuel & Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier, 2008. "Financial Crash, Commodity Prices and Global Imbalances," CEPR Discussion Papers 7064, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Ricardo J. Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2008. "Financial Crash, Commodity Prices and Global Imbalances," NBER Working Papers 14521, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Philip Garcia, 2004. "A selected review of agricultural commodity futures and options markets," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 31(3), pages 235-272, September.
- Diba, Behzad T & Grossman, Herschel I, 1988. "Explosive Rational Bubbles in Stock Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 520-30, June.
- Bessembinder, Hendrik, et al, 1995. " Mean Reversion in Equilibrium Asset Prices: Evidence from the Futures Term Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 361-75, March.
- Campbell, John Y. & Lo, Andrew W. & MacKinlay, A. Craig & Whitelaw, Robert F., 1998. "The Econometrics Of Financial Markets," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(04), pages 559-562, December.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.