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Price Asymmetric Relationships in Commodity and Energy Markets

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  • Wixson, Sarah E.
  • Katchova, Ani L.

Abstract

Recent increases in the price of crude oil have led to a rise in the prominence of corn-based ethanol as an alternative source of energy. As a result linkages have been established between commodity and energy prices. The aim of this study is to determine if soybeans, corn, wheat, oil, and ethanol adjust their prices asymmetrically depending on whether their actual price is over or under-predicted with respect to one another. This study’s goal of determining if asymmetric price relationships exist is accomplished by using monthly time series price data incorporated into a distributed lag error correction model distinguishing between positive and negative price difference and positive and negative values of the error correction terms. The primary results of this study found that asymmetric price changes do occur in the commodity and energy markets. Interestingly, in all the asymmetric price adjustments that were found, with only one exception in the soybean-corn relationship, prices will adjust downward when the actual price of one variable is above its equilibrium price as determined by the price of another study variable and consequently would be expected to exhibit a downward adjustment in price in the following month.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Association of Agricultural Economists in its series 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland with number 122553.

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Date of creation: 23 Feb 2012
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Handle: RePEc:ags:eaa123:122553

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Keywords: commodity prices; energy prices; price asymmetry; Risk and Uncertainty; Q13;

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References

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  1. Hertel, Thomas W. & Beckman, Jayson F., 2010. "Commodity Price Volatility in the Biofuel Era: An Examination of the Linkage between Energy and Agricultural Markets," 2010 Annual Meeting, July 25-27, 2010, Denver, Colorado 60857, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  2. Chia-Lin Chang & Li-Hsueh Chen & Shawkat Hammoudeh & Michael McAleer, 2012. "Asymmetric Adjustments in the Ethanol and Grains Markets," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2012-11, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico, revised Apr 2012.
  3. von Braun, Joachim & Ahmed, Akhter & Asenso-Okyere, Kwadwo & Fan, Shenggen & Gulati, Ashok & Hoddinott, John & Pandya-Lorch, Rajul & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Ruel, Marie & Torero, Maximo & van Rheenen, Te, 2008. "High food prices: The what, who, and how of proposed policy actions," Policy briefs 1A, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  4. C. John McDermott & Paul Cashin & Alasdair Scott, 1999. "Booms and Slumps in World Commodity Prices," IMF Working Papers 99/155, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Giliola Frey & Matteo Manera, 2007. "Econometric Models Of Asymmetric Price Transmission," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(2), pages 349-415, 04.
  6. Wallace E. Tyner, 2010. "The integration of energy and agricultural markets," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 41(s1), pages 193-201, November.
  7. Karali, Berna & Thurman, Walter N., 2010. "Components of Grain Futures Price Volatility," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 35(2), August.
  8. M. Galeotti & A. Lanza & M. Manera, 2001. "Rockets and feathers revisited: an international comparison on European gasoline markets," Working Paper CRENoS 200112, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
  9. Jochen Meyer & Stephan Cramon-Taubadel, 2004. "Asymmetric Price Transmission: A Survey," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(3), pages 581-611.
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Cited by:
  1. Serra, Teresa & Zilberman, David, 2013. "Biofuel-related price transmission literature: A review," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 141-151.
  2. Bastianin, Andrea & Galeotti, Marzio & Manera, Matteo, 2014. "Causality and predictability in distribution: The ethanol–food price relation revisited," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 152-160.
  3. Kristoufek, Ladislav & Janda, Karel & Zilberman, David, 2012. "Correlations between biofuels and related commodities before and during the food crisis: A taxonomy perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1380-1391.
  4. Kristoufek, Ladislav & Janda, Karel & Zilberman, David, 2012. "Relationship Between Prices of Food, Fuel and Biofuel," 131st Seminar, September 18-19, 2012, Prague, Czech Republic 135793, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  5. Papież, Monika, 2014. "A dynamic analysis of causality between prices of corn, crude oil and ethanol," MPRA Paper 56540, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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