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Volatility Spillovers between Food and Energy Markets, A Semiparametric Approach

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  • Serra, Teresa
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    Abstract

    Previous literature on volatility links between food and energy prices is scarce and mainly based on parametric approaches. We assess this issue by using a semiparametric GARCH model recently proposed by Long et al. (2009), which is essentially a nonparametric correction of the parametric conditional covariance function. We focus on price links between crude oil, ethanol and sugar prices in Brazil. Results suggest strong volatility links between the prices studied. They also suggest that parametric approximations of the conditional covariance matrix may lead to misleading results and can be improved using nonparametric techniques.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by European Association of Agricultural Economists in its series 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland with number 115997.

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    Date of creation: 02 Sep 2011
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    Handle: RePEc:ags:eaae11:115997

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    Keywords: biofuels; feedstocks; price volatility interactions; semiparametric GARCH; Demand and Price Analysis; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q11; Q42; C58;

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    1. Bruce A. Babcock, 2008. "Distributional Implications of U.S. Ethanol Policy ," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 30(3), pages 533-542.
    2. Seo, Byeongseon, 2007. "Asymptotic distribution of the cointegrating vector estimator in error correction models with conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 68-111, March.
    3. Denis Pelletier, 2004. "Regime Switching for Dynamic Correlations," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 230, Econometric Society.
    4. Wolfgang HÄRDLE & A. TSYBAKOV, 1995. "Local Polynomial Estimators of the Volatility Function in Nonparametric Autoregression," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1995,42, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    5. Zibin Zhang & Luanne Lohr & Cesar Escalante & Michael Wetzstein, 2009. "Ethanol, Corn, and Soybean Price Relations in a Volatile Vehicle-Fuels Market," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 2(2), pages 320-339, June.
    6. Jason Henderson & Brent A. Gloy, 2009. "The impact of ethanol plants on cropland values in the great plains," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 69(1), pages 36-48, May.
    7. Serra, Teresa & Zilberman, David, 2009. "Price volatility in ethanol markets," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 49940, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    8. François Longin, 2001. "Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 649-676, 04.
    9. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 122-150, February.
    10. Babcock, Bruce A., 2008. "Distributional Implications of U.S. Ethanol Policy," Staff General Research Papers 12936, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    11. Edmar Fagundes de Almeida & Jose Vitor Bomtempo & Carla Maria De Souza e Silva, 2007. "The Performance of Brazilian Biofuels: An Economic, Environmental and Social Analysis," OECD/ITF Joint Transport Research Centre Discussion Papers 2007/5, OECD Publishing.
    12. Kelvin Balcombe & George Rapsomanikis, 2008. "Bayesian Estimation and Selection of Nonlinear Vector Error Correction Models: The Case of the Sugar-Ethanol-Oil Nexus in Brazil," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(3), pages 658-668.
    13. Audrino, Francesco, 2006. "The impact of general non-parametric volatility functions in multivariate GARCH models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(11), pages 3032-3052, July.
    14. Xiangdong Long & Liangjun Su & Aman Ullah, 2009. "Estimation and Forecasting of Dynamic Conditional Covariance: A Semiparametric Multivariate Model Variables with Econometric Applications," Working Papers 200908, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics, revised Jul 2009.
    15. Kevin McNew & Duane Griffith, 2005. "Measuring the Impact of Ethanol Plants on Local Grain Prices," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 27(2), pages 164-180.
    16. Martines-Filho, Joao & Burnquist, Heloisa Lee & Vian, Carlos Eduardo de Freitas, 2006. "Bioenergy and the Rise of Sugarcane-Based Ethanol in Brazil," Choices, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 21(2).
    17. Lai, YiHao & Chen, Cathy W.S. & Gerlach, Richard, 2009. "Optimal dynamic hedging via copula-threshold-GARCH models," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 79(8), pages 2609-2624.
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    Cited by:
    1. Brenda López Cabrera, & Franziska Schulz,, 2013. "Volatility linkages between energy and agricultural commodity prices," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2013-042, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    2. Gardebroek, Cornelis & Hernandez, Manuel A., 2012. "Do energy prices stimulate food price volatility? Examining volatility transmission between US oil, ethanol and corn markets," 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland 122476, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Serra, Teresa, 2012. "Biofuel-related price volatility literature: a review and new approaches," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126057, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. Gardebroek, Cornelis & Hernandez, Manuel A. & Robles, Miguel, 2014. "Market interdependence and volatility transmission among major crops:," IFPRI discussion papers 1344, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    5. Walid Mensi & Shawkat Hammoudeh & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Seong-Min Yoon, 2014. "Dynamic spillovers among major energy and cereal commodity prices," Working Papers 2014-160, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    6. de Gorter, Harry & Drabik, Dusan & Kliauga, Erika M. & Timilsina, Govinda R., 2013. "An economic model of Brazil's ethanol-sugar markets and impacts of fuel policies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6524, The World Bank.
    7. Mensi, Walid & Beljid, Makram & Boubaker, Adel & Managi, Shunsuke, 2013. "Correlations and volatility spillovers across commodity and stock markets: Linking energies, food, and gold," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 15-22.
    8. Serra, Teresa & Zilberman, David, 2013. "Biofuel-related price transmission literature: A review," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 141-151.
    9. Peri, Massimo & Baldi, Lucia, 2013. "The effect of biofuel policies on feedstock market: Empirical evidence for rapeseed oil prices in EU," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 18-37.
    10. Haixia, Wu & Shiping, Li, 2013. "Volatility spillovers in China’s crude oil, corn and fuel ethanol markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 878-886.
    11. repec:fpr:export:1344 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Amine Lahiani & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Thierry Vo, 2014. "Understanding return and volatility spillovers among major agricultural commodities," Working Papers 2014-243, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    13. Kristoufek, Ladislav & Janda, Karel & Zilberman, David, 2012. "Correlations between biofuels and related commodities before and during the food crisis: A taxonomy perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1380-1391.
    14. Kristoufek, Ladislav & Janda, Karel & Zilberman, David, 2012. "Relationship Between Prices of Food, Fuel and Biofuel," 131st Seminar, September 18-19, 2012, Prague, Czech Republic 135793, European Association of Agricultural Economists.

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