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Counteracting Unemployment in Crises: Non-Linear Effects of Short-Time Work Policy

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  • Gehrke, Britta

    (Freie Universität Berlin)

  • Hochmuth, Brigitte

    (University of Erlangen-Nuremberg)

Abstract

Short-time work is a labor market policy that subsidizes working time reductions among firms in financial difficulty to prevent layoffs. Many OECD countries have used this policy in the Great Recession. This paper shows that the effects of short-time work are strongly time dependent and non-linear over the business cycle. It may save up to 0.8 jobs per short-time worker in deep economic crises. The policy becomes more efficient as the recession deepens. In expansions, the effects are smaller and may turn negative. We disentangle discretionary short-time work from automatic stabilization in German data using smooth transition VARs.

Suggested Citation

  • Gehrke, Britta & Hochmuth, Brigitte, 2018. "Counteracting Unemployment in Crises: Non-Linear Effects of Short-Time Work Policy," IZA Discussion Papers 11472, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11472
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    Cited by:

    1. Gehrke, Britta & Lechthaler, Wolfgang & Merkl, Christian, 2019. "The German labor market during the Great Recession: Shocks and institutions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 192-208.
    2. Herzog-Stein, Alexander & Nüß, Patrick & Peede, Lennert & Stein, Ulrike, 2022. "Germany and the United States in coronavirus distress: internal versus external labour market flexibility," Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 56, pages 1-11.
    3. J. Garcia-Clemente & N. Rubino & E. Congregado, 2023. "Reemployment premium effect of furlough programs: evaluating Spain’s scheme during the COVID-19 crisis," Journal for Labour Market Research, Springer;Institute for Employment Research/ Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), vol. 57(1), pages 1-15, December.
    4. Dengler, Thomas & Gehrke, Britta, 2021. "Short-Time Work and Precautionary Savings," IZA Discussion Papers 14329, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Joaquin Garcia-Cabo & Anna Lipinska & Gaston Navarro, 2022. "Sectoral Shocks, Reallocation, and Labor Market Policies," International Finance Discussion Papers 1361, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Osiander, Christopher & Stephan, Gesine, 2018. "Unter welchen Bedingungen würden sich Beschäftigte weiterbilden? : Ergebnisse eines faktoriellen Surveys," IAB-Discussion Paper 201804, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    7. Konstantins Benkovskis & Olegs Tkacevs & Karlis Vilerts, 2023. "Did Job Retention Schemes Save Jobs during the Covid-19 Pandemic? Firm-level Evidence from Latvia," Working Papers 2023/03, Latvijas Banka.
    8. Hellwagner, Timon & Weber, Enzo, 2021. "Labour Market Adjustments to Population Decline," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242455, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    9. Elroukh, Ahmed W. & Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Panovska, Irina, 2020. "A look at jobless recoveries in G7 countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    10. Garcia-Clemente, Javier & Rubino, Nicola & Congregado, Emilio, 2022. "Evaluating the effects of short and medium-term temporary work reduction schemes: the case of Spain’s ERTEs during the COVID-19 outbreak," MPRA Paper 114504, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Joaquín García-Cabo & Joaquín Anna Lipińska & Gastón Navarro, 2023. "Sectoral shocks, reallocation, and labor market policies," BIS Working Papers 1095, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Alexander Herzog-Stein & Patrick Nuess & Lennert Peede & Ulrike Stein, 2021. "Germanys Labour Market in Coronavirus Distress New Challenges to Safeguarding Employment," IMK Working Paper 209-2021, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    short-time work; fiscal policy; labor market; non-linearity; smooth transition VARs; business cycle;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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