IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iab/iabdpa/201714.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The German labor market in the Great Recession: Shocks and institutions

Author

Listed:
  • Gehrke, Britta

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany ; Friedrich-Alexander Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg)

  • Lechthaler, Wolfgang

    (Kiel Institute for the World Economy)

  • Merkl, Christian

    (Friedrich-Alexander Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg ; Kiel Institute for the World Economy)

Abstract

"This paper analyzes Germany's unusual labor market experience during the Great Recession. We estimate a general equilibrium model with a detailed labor market block for postunification Germany. This allows us to disentangle the role of institutions (short-time work, government spending rules) and shocks (aggregate, labor market, and policy shocks) and to perform counterfactual exercises. We identify positive labor market performance shocks (likely caused by labor market reforms) as the key driver for the 'German labor market miracle' during the Great Recession." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Suggested Citation

  • Gehrke, Britta & Lechthaler, Wolfgang & Merkl, Christian, 2017. "The German labor market in the Great Recession: Shocks and institutions," IAB-Discussion Paper 201714, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    • Handle: RePEc:iab:iabdpa:201714
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doku.iab.de/discussionpapers/2017/dp1417.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Leeper, Eric M. & Plante, Michael & Traum, Nora, 2010. "Dynamics of fiscal financing in the United States," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 156(2), pages 304-321, June.
    2. Blanchard, Olivier & Wolfers, Justin, 2000. "The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(462), pages 1-33, March.
    3. Tito Boeri & Herbert Bruecker, 2011. "Short-time work benefits revisited: some lessons from the Great Recession [‘Reversed roles? Wage and employment effects of the current crisis’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 26(68), pages 697-765.
    4. Balleer, Almut & Gehrke, Britta & Lechthaler, Wolfgang & Merkl, Christian, 2016. "Does short-time work save jobs? A business cycle analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 99-122.
    5. Cogan, John F. & Cwik, Tobias & Taylor, John B. & Wieland, Volker, 2010. "New Keynesian versus old Keynesian government spending multipliers," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 281-295, March.
    6. Christoffel, Kai & Kuester, Keith & Linzert, Tobias, 2009. "The role of labor markets for euro area monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 908-936, November.
    7. Sabine Klinger & Enzo Weber, 2016. "Decomposing Beveridge Curve Dynamics By Correlated Unobserved Components," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(6), pages 877-894, December.
    8. Krause, Michael U. & Uhlig, Harald, 2012. "Transitions in the German labor market: Structure and crisis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 64-79.
    9. Launov, Andrey & Wälde, Klaus, 2016. "The employment effect of reforming a public employment agency," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 140-164.
    10. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    11. Sungbae An & Frank Schorfheide, 2007. "Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 113-172.
    12. Lechthaler, Wolfgang & Merkl, Christian & Snower, Dennis J., 2010. "Monetary persistence and the labor market: A new perspective," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 968-983, May.
    13. Lawrence Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2011. "When Is the Government Spending Multiplier Large?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(1), pages 78-121.
    14. Gehrke, Britta & Weber, Enzo, 2018. "Identifying asymmetric effects of labor market reforms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 18-40.
    15. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
    16. Michael C. Burda & Jennifer Hunt, 2011. "What Explains the German Labor Market Miracle in the Great Recession," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 42(1 (Spring), pages 273-335.
    17. Cahuc, Pierre & Carcillo, Stéphane, 2011. "Is Short-Time Work a Good Method to Keep Unemployment Down?," IZA Discussion Papers 5430, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    18. Francesco Furlanetto & Nicolas Groshenny, 2016. "Mismatch Shocks and Unemployment During the Great Recession," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1197-1214, November.
    19. Tenhofen Jörn & Wolff Guntram B. & Heppke-Falk Kirsten H., 2010. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Exogenous Fiscal Policy Shocks in Germany: A Disaggregated SVAR Analysis," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 230(3), pages 328-355, June.
    20. Mr. Tom Krebs & Mr. Martin Scheffel, 2013. "Macroeconomic Evaluation of Labor Market Reform in Germany," IMF Working Papers 2013/042, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Klinger, Sabine & Weber, Enzo, 2015. "GDP-Employment Decoupling and the Productivity Puzzle in Germany," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 485, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
    22. Julio J. Rotemberg, 1982. "Monopolistic Price Adjustment and Aggregate Output," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 49(4), pages 517-531.
    23. Andrey Launov & Klaus Wälde, 2013. "Estimating Incentive And Welfare Effects Of Nonstationary Unemployment Benefits," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 54, pages 1159-1198, November.
    24. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Groll, Dominik, 2010. "The German Labour Market Miracle," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 214, pages 38-50, October.
    25. Mortensen, Dale & Pissarides, Christopher, 2011. "Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Theory of Unemployment," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 1-19.
    26. Diamond, Peter A, 1982. "Aggregate Demand Management in Search Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(5), pages 881-894, October.
    27. Jens Boysen-Hogrefe & Dominik Groll & Wolfgang Lechthaler & Christian Merkl, 2010. "The Role of Labor Market Institutions in the Great Recession," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 61(Supplemen), pages 65-88.
    28. Robert Shimer, 2005. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 25-49, March.
    29. Sabine Klinger & Thomas Rothe, 2012. "The Impact of Labour Market Reforms and Economic Performance on the Matching of the Short‐term and the Long‐term Unemployed," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 59(1), pages 90-114, February.
    30. Tom Krebs & Martin Scheffel, 2013. "Macroeconomic Evaluation of Labor Market Reform in Germany," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 61(4), pages 664-701, December.
    31. Tommaso Monacelli & Roberto Perotti, 2008. "Fiscal Policy, Wealth Effects, and Markups," NBER Working Papers 14584, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    32. Christoffel, Kai & Kuester, Keith, 2008. "Resuscitating the wage channel in models with unemployment fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(5), pages 865-887, July.
    33. Tom Krebs & Martin Scheffel, 2013. "Macroeconomic Evaluation of Labor Market Reform in Germany," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 61(4), pages 664-701, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Peters, Jan Cornelius, 2016. "Quantifying the effect of labor market size on learning externalities," Economics Working Papers 2016-11, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    2. Britta Gehrke & Brigitte Hochmuth, 2021. "Counteracting Unemployment in Crises: Non‐Linear Effects of Short‐Time Work Policy," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 123(1), pages 144-183, January.
    3. Casares, Miguel & Vázquez, Jesús, 2018. "Why are labor markets in Spain and Germany so different?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 320-335.
    4. Burda Michael C. & Seele Stefanie, 2017. "Das deutsche Arbeitsmarktwunder: Eine Bilanz," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 18(3), pages 179-204, October.
    5. Katerina Arnostova & Tomas Adam & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Babecky & Sona Benecka & Jan Bruha & Jan Frait & Tomas Holub & Eva Hromadkova & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Petr Kral & Ivana, 2018. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2018," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, number as18 edited by Katerina Arnostova & Lucie Matejkova, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gehrke, Britta & Lechthaler, Wolfgang & Merkl, Christian, 2019. "The German labor market during the Great Recession: Shocks and institutions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 192-208.
    2. Balleer, Almut & Gehrke, Britta & Lechthaler, Wolfgang & Merkl, Christian, 2016. "Does short-time work save jobs? A business cycle analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 99-122.
    3. Hutter, Christian & Klinger, Sabine & Trenkler, Carsten & Weber, Enzo, 2019. "Which factors are behind Germany's labour market upswing?," IAB-Discussion Paper 201920, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    4. Hochmuth, Brigitte & Kohlbrecher, Britta & Merkl, Christian & Gartner, Hermann, 2021. "Hartz IV and the decline of German unemployment: A macroeconomic evaluation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    5. Wilhelm, Stefan, 2023. "Efficiency of short-time work schemes and the role of monetary policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    6. Michael U. Krause & Thomas A. Lubik, 2014. "Modeling Labor Markets in Macroeconomics: Search and Matching," Working Paper 14-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    7. Anja Bauer & Ian King, 2015. "The Hartz Reforms, the German Miracle, and the Reallocation Puzzle," Discussion Papers Series 550, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    8. Michael Stops, 2016. "Revisiting German labour market reform effects—a panel data analysis for occupational labour markets," IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 5(1), pages 1-43, December.
    9. Ruppert, Kilian & Stähler, Nikolai, 2022. "What drives the German current account? Household savings, capital investments and public policies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    10. Bauer, Anja & King, Ian, 2018. "The Hartz reforms, the German Miracle, and labor reallocation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 1-17.
    11. Gadatsch, Niklas & Stähler, Nikolai & Weigert, Benjamin, 2016. "German labor market and fiscal reforms 1999–2008: Can they be blamed for intra-euro area imbalances?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 307-324.
    12. Carrillo-Tudela, Carlos & Launov, Andrey & Robin, Jean-Marc, 2021. "The fall in german unemployment: A flow analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    13. Tom Krebs & Martin Scheffel, 2016. "Labor Market Institutions and the Cost of Recessions," CESifo Working Paper Series 6262, CESifo.
    14. Masuch, Klaus & Anderton, Robert & Setzer, Ralph & Benalal, Nicholai, 2018. "Structural policies in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 210, European Central Bank.
    15. Ruppert, Kilian & Stähler, Nikolai, 2020. "Household savings, capital investments and public policies: What drives the German current account?," Discussion Papers 41/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    16. Christian Merkl & Timo Sauerbier, 2024. "Public Employment Agency Reform, Matching Efficiency, and German Unemployment," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(1), pages 393-440, March.
    17. Christian Hutter & Francesco Carbonero & Sabine Klinger & Carsten Trenkler & Enzo Weber, 2022. "Which factors were behind Germany's labour market upswing? A data‐driven approach," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(5), pages 1052-1076, October.
    18. Hartung, Benjamin & Jung, Philip & Kuhn, Moritz, 2018. "What Hides behind the German Labor Market Miracle? Unemployment Insurance Reforms and Labor Market Dynamics," IZA Discussion Papers 12001, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    19. Niklas Engbom & Ms. Enrica Detragiache & Ms. Faezeh Raei, 2015. "The German Labor Market Reforms and Post-Unemployment Earnings," IMF Working Papers 2015/162, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Mayer, Eric & Moyen, Stéphane & Stähler, Nikolai, 2010. "Government expenditures and unemployment: A DSGE perspective," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2010,18, Deutsche Bundesbank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; Hartz-Reform ; Arbeitslosigkeitsentwicklung ; institutionelle Faktoren ; Kurzarbeit ; öffentliche Ausgaben ; Rezession ; Arbeitsmarktentwicklung ; arbeitsmarktpolitische Maßnahme ; 1993-2013;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • J08 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics Policies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iab:iabdpa:201714. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: IAB, Geschäftsbereich Wissenschaftliche Fachinformation und Bibliothek (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iabbbde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.