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Estimating fiscal multipliers: evidence from a nonlinear world

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Author Info

  • Giovanni Caggiano

    ()
    (University of Padova)

  • Efrem Castelnuovo

    ()
    (University of Padova)

  • Valentina Colombo

    ()
    (University of Padova)

  • Gabriela Nodari

    ()
    (University of Verona)

Abstract

We estimate nonlinear VARs to assess to what extent fiscal spending multipliers are countercyclical in the United States. We deal with the issue of nonfundamentalness due to fiscal foresight by appealing to sums of revisions of expectations of fiscal expenditures. This measure of anticipated fiscal shocks is shown to carry valuable information of future dynamics of public spending. Results based on generalized impulse responses suggest that fiscal spending multipliers in recessions are greater than one, but not statistically larger than in expansions. However, nonlinearities arise when focusing on deep recessions vs. strong expansionary periods.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno" in its series "Marco Fanno" Working Papers with number 0179.

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Length: 56 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2014
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pad:wpaper:0179

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Keywords: Fiscal news; Fiscal foresight; Fiscal spending multipliers; Smooth Transition Vector-AutoRegressions.;

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