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Positive and negative stress in business cycle behaviour

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Abstract

The economic theory shows as business cycles have longer periods of expansions than contractions. The purpose of this paper is to analyze their behaviour in order to present a metrics that assesses the negative and positive stress of the economic system. In addition, this analysis presents some forecasting implications supporting modern political economy of growth.

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File URL: http://www.ceris.cnr.it/ceris/workingpaper/2010/WP_01_10_COCCIA.pdf
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Paper provided by Institute for Economic Research on Firms and Growth - Moncalieri (TO) in its series CERIS Working Paper with number 201001.

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Length: 15 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:csc:cerisp:201001

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Keywords: Business Cycles; Contraction-compression Economic stress; Economic Forecasting;

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References

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  1. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 159-230 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Geoffrey H. Moore, 1983. "Appendices to "Business Cycles, Inflation, and Forecasting, 2nd ed."," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles, Inflation, and Forecasting, 2nd ed., pages 453-473 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Susanto Basu & Alan M. Taylor, 1999. "Business Cycles in International Historical Perspective," NBER Working Papers 7090, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1991. "Hours and Employment Variation in Business Cycle Theory," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 63-81, January.
  5. Sichel, Daniel E, 1993. "Business Cycle Asymmetry: A Deeper Look," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 31(2), pages 224-36, April.
  6. Christina D. Romer, 1992. "Remeasuring Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 4150, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Mario Coccia, 2009. "Business cycles and the scale of economic shock," CERIS Working Paper 200906, Institute for Economic Research on Firms and Growth - Moncalieri (TO).
  8. Martin Chalkley & In Ho Lee, 1998. "Learning and Asymmetric Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(3), pages 623-645, July.
  9. Geoffrey H. Moore, 1983. "Introductory pages to "Business Cycles, Inflation, and Forecasting, 2nd ed."," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles, Inflation, and Forecasting, 2nd ed., pages -25 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. W.A. Razzak, 2001. "Business Cycle Asymmetries: International Evidence," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 4(1), pages 230-243, January.
  11. Cover, James P. & Pecorino, Paul, 2005. "The length of US business expansions: When did the break in the data occur?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 452-471, September.
  12. Gary D. Hansen & Edward C. Prescott, 2005. "Capacity constraints, asymmetries, and the business cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(4), pages 850-865, October.
  13. Randal Verbrugge Randal Verbrugge, 1997. "Investigating Cyclical Asymmetries," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-10, April.
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