Business cycles and the scale of economic shock
AbstractThe purpose of this paper is to determine the scale of economic shocks (SES), considering a new indicator based on the duration (in months) of contractions and expansions within Business Cycles and their amplitude, measured by GDP percent change based on chained 2000 dollars. Data of US Business cycles are used. The result is that the SES shows the real economic impact of contractions and expansions over time and serves as a warning signal that the economic system is entering into a turbulent state in the short-run.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Institute for Economic Research on Firms and Growth - Moncalieri (TO) in its series CERIS Working Paper with number 200906.
Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2009
Date of revision:
Business Cycles; Economic shock; Contractions; Expansions;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-02-13 (All new papers)
- NEP-BEC-2010-02-13 (Business Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2010-02-13 (Macroeconomics)
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- Mario Coccia, 2010. "Positive and negative stress in business cycle behaviour," CERIS Working Paper 201001, Institute for Economic Research on Firms and Growth - Moncalieri (TO).
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