A Note on the Finite Sample Properties of the CLS Method of TAR Models
AbstractIn this paper we focus on the finite sample properties of the conditional least squares (CLS) method of threshold autoregressive (TAR) parameters under the following conditions: (a) non-Gaussian model innovations; (b) two types of asymmetry (i.e. deepness and steepness) captured by TAR models. It is clearly demonstrated that the finite sample properties of the CLS method of TAR parameters significantly differ depending on the type of asymmetry. The behavior of steepness-based models is very good compared to that obtained from deepness-based models. Therefore, extreme caution must be excercised to preliminary modelling steps, such as testing the type of asymmetry before estimating TAR models in practice. A mistake in this phase of modelling can, in turn, give rise to very problematic results.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics in its series Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance with number 1206.
Date of creation: Mar 2012
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- C46 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Specific Distributions
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-04-03 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2012-04-03 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ETS-2012-04-03 (Econometric Time Series)
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