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Productivity, energy prices, and the Great Moderation: a new link

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Author Info
Rajeev Dhawan
Karsten Jeske
Pedro Silos

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Abstract

We study how total factor productivity (TFP), energy prices, and the Great Moderation are linked. First we estimate a joint stochastic process for the energy price and TFP and establish that until the second quarter of 1982, energy prices negatively affected productivity. This spillover has since disappeared. Second, we show that within the framework of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, the disappearance of this energy-productivity spillover generates the significantly lower volatility of output and its components. Specifically, the change in the joint stochastic process accounts for close to 70 percent of the moderation in output volatility.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta in its series Working Paper with number 2008-11.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2008-11

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  1. Rajeev Dhawan & Karsten Jeske, 2007. "What determines the output drop after an energy price increase: household or firm energy share?," Working Paper 2007-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
  2. Collard, Fabrice & Juillard, Michel, 2001. "Accuracy of stochastic perturbation methods: The case of asset pricing models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(6-7), pages 979-999, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2002. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Working Papers 9127, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Anton Nakov & Andrea Pescatori, 2007. "Oil and the Great Moderation," Working Paper 0717, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy M. Piger & Howard J. Wall, 2007. "A state-level analysis of the Great Moderation," Working Papers 2007-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Bernanke, Ben S & Gertler, Mark & Watson, Mark W, 2004. "Oil Shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behavior: The Role of Monetary Policy: Reply," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 287-91, April.
  7. Sylvain Leduc & Keith Sill, 2007. "Monetary Policy, Oil Shocks, and TFP: Accounting for the Decline in U.S. Volatility," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 10(4), pages 595-614, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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This page was last updated on 2008-7-7.

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