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The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Effect: Evidence from Pakistan

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  • Tayyaba Idrees

    ()
    (MPhil Student, Department of Economics, Fatima Jinnah Women University, Pakistan.)

  • Saira Tufail

    ()
    (Lecturer in Economics, Department of Economics, Fatima Jinnah Women University, Pakistan.)

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    Abstract

    According to the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler (HLM) effect, an exogenous temporary increase in the terms of trade leads to an improvement in the current account balance. This paper uses a recursive vector autoregression to investigate empirically the existence of the HLM effect in Pakistan, using a time series dataset for the period 1980–2009. Two important results emerge. First, real income deteriorates with an improvement in the terms of trade. Second, the current account balance also responds negatively to innovations in the terms of trade, which implies that the HLM effect does not exist in Pakistan.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics in its journal Lahore Journal of Economics.

    Volume (Year): 17 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 2 (July-Dec)
    Pages: 87-110

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    Handle: RePEc:lje:journl:v:17:y:2012:i:2:p:87-110

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    Related research

    Keywords: Terms of trade; current account; economic growth; recursive VAR; Pakistan;

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    References

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    1. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "The intertemporal approach to the current account," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 34, pages 1731-1799 Elsevier.
    2. Assaf Razin, 1995. "The Dynamic-Optimizing Approach to the Current Account: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 4334, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Pinto, Brian, 1987. "Nigeria during and after the Oil Boom: A Policy Comparison with Indonesia," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 1(3), pages 419-45, May.
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    5. Hasan, Lubna, 1992. "Dependency Ratio, Foreign Capital Inflows and the Rate of Savings in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 7342, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    8. Svensson, Lars E O & Razin, Assaf, 1983. "The Terms of Trade and the Current Account: The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Effect," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 97-125, February.
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    15. Piotr Misztal, 2010. "The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Effect. Theory and Practice in Poland," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 13(38), pages 129-146, December.
    16. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    17. Jonathan D. Ostry & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1992. "Private Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks: Evidence from Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(3), pages 495-517, September.
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