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The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Effect: Evidence from Pakistan

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  • Tayyaba Idrees

    ()
    (MPhil Student, Department of Economics, Fatima Jinnah Women University, Pakistan.)

  • Saira Tufail

    ()
    (Lecturer in Economics, Department of Economics, Fatima Jinnah Women University, Pakistan.)

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    Abstract

    According to the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler (HLM) effect, an exogenous temporary increase in the terms of trade leads to an improvement in the current account balance. This paper uses a recursive vector autoregression to investigate empirically the existence of the HLM effect in Pakistan, using a time series dataset for the period 1980–2009. Two important results emerge. First, real income deteriorates with an improvement in the terms of trade. Second, the current account balance also responds negatively to innovations in the terms of trade, which implies that the HLM effect does not exist in Pakistan.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics in its journal Lahore Journal of Economics.

    Volume (Year): 17 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 2 (July-Dec)
    Pages: 87-110

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    Handle: RePEc:lje:journl:v:17:y:2012:i:2:p:87-110

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    Related research

    Keywords: Terms of trade; current account; economic growth; recursive VAR; Pakistan;

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    1. Maurice Obstfeld, 1981. "Aggregate Spending and the Terms of Trade: Is There a Laursen-Metzler Effect?," NBER Working Papers 0686, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Ashfaque H. Khan & Lubna Hasan & Afia Malik, 1992. "Dependency Ratio, Foreign Capital Inflows and the Rate of Savings in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 31(4), pages 843-856.
    3. Maurice Obstfeld and Kenneth Rogoff., 1994. "The Intertemporal Approach to the Current Account," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C94-044, University of California at Berkeley.
    4. Svensson, Lars E O & Razin, Assaf, 1983. "The Terms of Trade and the Current Account: The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Effect," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 97-125, February.
    5. Torsten Persson & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1983. "Current Account Dynamics and the Terms of Trade: Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Two Generations Later," NBER Working Papers 1129, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    15. Fry, Maxwell J., 1986. "Terms-of-trade dynamics in Asia: An analysis of national saving and domestic investment responses to terms-of-trade changes in 14 Asian LDCs," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 57-73, March.
    16. Paul Cashin & C. John McCDermott, 2002. "The Long-Run Behavior of Commodity Prices: Small Trends and Big Variability," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(2), pages 2.
    17. Pinto, Brian, 1987. "Nigeria during and after the Oil Boom: A Policy Comparison with Indonesia," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 1(3), pages 419-45, May.
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    19. Partha Sen & Stephen J. Turnovsky, 1988. "Deterioration of the Terms of Trade and Capital Accumulation: A Reexamination of the Laursen-Metzler Effect," NBER Working Papers 2616, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Piotr Misztal, 2010. "The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Effect. Theory and Practice in Poland," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 13(38), pages 129-146, December.
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