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Savings and the terms of trade under borrowing constraints

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  • Agenor, Pierre-Richard
  • Aizenman, Joshua

Abstract

The authors examine the extent to which permanent terms-of-trade shocks have an asymmetric effect on private savings. Using a simple three-period model, they show that if households expect to face binding constraints on borrowing in bad states of nature (when the economy is in a long trough rather than a sharp peak). Savings rates will respond asymmetrically to favorable movements in the permanent component of the terms of trade - in contrast with the predictions of conventional consumption-smoothing models. They test the asymmetric effects of terms-of-trade disturbances using an econometric model that controls for various standard determinants of private savings. The results - based on panel data for non-oil commodity exporters of Sub-Saharan Africa for 1980-96 (a group of countries for which movements in the terms of trade have traditionally represented a key source of macroeconomic shocks) - indicate that increases in the permanent component of the terms of trade (measured using three alternative filtering techniques) indeed tend to be associated with higher rates of private savings.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 2381.

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Date of creation: 30 Jun 2000
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:2381

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Keywords: Banks&Banking Reform; Economic Theory&Research; Environmental Economics&Policies; Payment Systems&Infrastructure; Fiscal&Monetary Policy; Environmental Economics&Policies; TF054105-DONOR FUNDED OPERATION ADMINISTRATION FEE INCOME AND EXPENSE ACCOUNT; Banks&Banking Reform; Inequality; Economic Theory&Research;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Salim B. Furth, 2010. "Terms of Trade Volatility and Precautionary Savings in Developing Economies," DEGIT Conference Papers c015_013, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
  2. World Bank, 2011. "Turkey - Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) : Sustaining High Growth - The Role of Domestic savings : Synthesis Report," World Bank Other Operational Studies 12264, The World Bank.
  3. Smith, Constance E., 2011. "External balance adjustment: An intra-national and international comparison," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1195-1213, October.
  4. Matthieu Bussiere & Georgios Chortareas & Rebecca Driver, 2003. "Current Accounts, Net Foreign Assets and the Implications of Cyclical Factors," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 29(2), pages 269-286, Spring.
  5. Chowdhury, Abdur R., 2003. "Do asymmetric terms of trade shocks affect private savings in a transition economy?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 3/2003, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  6. Montiel, Peter J. & Serven, Luis, 2008. "Real exchange rates, saving and growth : is there a link ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4636, The World Bank.
  7. Piotr Misztal, 2010. "The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Effect. Theory and Practice in Poland," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 13(38), pages 129-146, December.
  8. Abdur R. Chowdhury, 2003. "Do asymmetric terms of trade shocks affect private savings in a transition economy?," Macroeconomics 0303006, EconWPA.
  9. Abdur R. Chowdhury, 2003. "Private Savings In Transition Economies: Are There Terms Of Trade Shocks?," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2003-572, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  10. Tayyaba Idrees & Saira Tufail, 2012. "The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Effect: Evidence from Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 17(2), pages 87-110, July-Dec.

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