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Age and Gender Differentials in Unemployment and Hysteresis

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  • Amy Y. Guisinger
  • Laura E. Jackson
  • Michael T. Owyang

Abstract

We use a time-varying panel unobserved components model to estimate unemployment gaps disaggregated by age and gender. Recessions before COVID affected men's labor market outcomes more than women's; however, the reverse was true for the COVID recession, with effects amplified for younger workers. The aggregate Phillips curve flattens over time and hysteresis is countercyclical for all groups. We find heterogeneity in both the Phillips curve and hysteresis coefficients, with wages responding more to workers with an outside option (high school- and retirement-age) and larger effects of hysteresis for younger workers.

Suggested Citation

  • Amy Y. Guisinger & Laura E. Jackson & Michael T. Owyang, 2022. "Age and Gender Differentials in Unemployment and Hysteresis," Working Papers 2022-015, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:94533
    DOI: 10.20955/wp.2022.015
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    time varying parameters; natural rate of unemployment; hysteresis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

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