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Demographic Differences in Cyclical Employment Variation

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Author Info
Kim B. Clark
Lawrence H. Summers

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Abstract

Demographic differences in patterns of employment variation over the business cycle are examined in this paper. Three primary conclusions emerge. First, both participation and unemployment must be considered in any analysis of cyclical changes in the labor market. Second, young people bear a disproportionate share of cyclical employment variation. Third, failure to consider participation has led to undue pessimism about the effect of aggregate demand policy on high unemployment groups. If participation did not surge, reduction in overall unemployment to its 1969 level would reduce the unemployment of almost all demographic groups to very low levels.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 0514.

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Date of creation: Sep 1981
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0514

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Ben-Porath, Yoram, 1973. "Labor-Force Participation Rates and the Supply of Labor," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 697-704, May-June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Kim B. Clark & Lawrence H. Summers, 1984. "Labor Force Participation: Timing and Persistence," NBER Working Papers 0977, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. George L. Perry, 1977. "Potential Output and Productivity," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 8(1977-1), pages 11-60. [Downloadable!]
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Gary Solon & Robert Barsky & Jonathan A. Parker, 1992. "Measuring the Cyclicality of Real Wages: How Important is Composition Bias," NBER Working Papers 4202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Richard B. Freeman & William M. Rodgers III, 1999. "Area Economic Conditions and the Labor Market Outcomes of Young Men in the 1990s Expansion," NBER Working Papers 7073, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Mary Corcoran & Roger H. Gordon & Deborah Laren & Gary Solon, 1989. "Effects of Family and Community Background on Men's Economic Status," NBER Working Papers 2896, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Timothy J. Bartik, 1993. "The Effects of Local Labor Demand on Individual Labor Market Outcomes for Diffrerent Demographic Groups and the Poor," Staff Working Papers 93-23, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Nir Jaimovich & Henry E. Siu, 2007. "The young, the old, and the restless: demographics and business cycle volatility," Staff Report 387, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. James W. Moser, 1984. "A Principal Component Analysis of Labor Market Indicators," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 243-257, Jul-Sep. [Downloadable!]
  7. Robert B. Barsky & Gary Solon, 1989. "Real Wages Over The Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 2888, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Paul Gomme & Richard Rogerson & Peter Rupert & Randall Wright, 2004. "The business cycle and the life cycle," Working Paper 0404, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Nir Jaimovich & Seth Pruitt & Henry E. Siu, 2009. "The Demand for Youth: Implications for the Hours Volatility Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 14697, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Couch, Kenneth A. & Fairlie, Robert W., 2008. "Last Hired, First Fired? Black-White Unemployment and the Business Cycle," IZA Discussion Papers 3713, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Carola Pessino & Indermit S. Gill, 1997. "Determinants of Labor Supply in Argentina: The Importance of Cyclical Fluctuations in Labor Force Participation," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 118, Universidad del CEMA. [Downloadable!]
  12. Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1993. "Cyclical movements of the labor input and its implicit real wage," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q II, pages 12-23. [Downloadable!]
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