Demographic Differences in Cyclical Employment Variation
AbstractDemographic differences in patterns of employment variation over the business cycle are examined in this paper. Three primary conclusions emerge. First, both participation and unemployment must be considered in any analysis of cyclical changes in the labor market. Second, young people bear a disproportionate share of cyclical employment variation. Third, failure to consider participation has led to undue pessimism about the effect of aggregate demand policy on high unemployment groups. If participation did not surge, reduction in overall unemployment to its 1969 level would reduce the unemployment of almost all demographic groups to very low levels.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 0514.
Date of creation: Jul 1980
Date of revision:
Publication status: published as Clark, Kim B. and Summers, Lawrence H. "Demographic Differences in Cyclical Employment Variation." The Journal of Human Resources, Vol. XVI, (Winter 1981), pp. 61-79.
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Other versions of this item:
- Kim B. Clark & Lawrence H. Summers, 1981. "Demographic Differences in Cyclical Employment Variation," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 16(1), pages 61-79.
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- George L. Perry, 1977. "Potential Output and Productivity," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 8(1), pages 11-60.
- Ben-Porath, Yoram, 1973. "Labor-Force Participation Rates and the Supply of Labor," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 697-704, May-June.
- Arthur M. Okun, 1973. "Upward Mobility in a High-Pressure Economy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 4(1), pages 207-262.
- Clark, Kim B & Summers, Lawrence H, 1982.
"Labour Force Participation: Timing and Persistence,"
Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(5), pages 825-44, Special I.
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