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Demographic Differences in Cyclical Employment Variation

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  • Kim B. Clark
  • Lawrence H. Summers

Abstract

Demographic differences in patterns of employment variation over the business cycle are examined in this paper. Three primary conclusions emerge. First, both participation and unemployment must be considered in any analysis of cyclical changes in the labor market. Second, young people bear a disproportionate share of cyclical employment variation. Third, failure to consider participation has led to undue pessimism about the effect of aggregate demand policy on high unemployment groups. If participation did not surge, reduction in overall unemployment to its 1969 level would reduce the unemployment of almost all demographic groups to very low levels.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by University of Wisconsin Press in its journal Journal of Human Resources.

Volume (Year): 16 (1981)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 61-79

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Handle: RePEc:uwp:jhriss:v:16:y:1981:i:1:p:61-79

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Web page: http://jhr.uwpress.org/

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  1. Ben-Porath, Yoram, 1973. "Labor-Force Participation Rates and the Supply of Labor," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 697-704, May-June.
  2. George L. Perry, 1977. "Potential Output and Productivity," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 8(1), pages 11-60.
  3. Kim B. Clark & Lawrence H. Summers, 1982. "Labor Force Participation: Timing and Persistence," NBER Working Papers 0977, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Arthur M. Okun, 1973. "Upward Mobility in a High-Pressure Economy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 4(1), pages 207-262.
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