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Políticas monetarias e inflación, Colombia 1951-1989

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  • Luis Lorente

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    Abstract

    A partir de la comparación entre dos periodos, de 20 años cada uno, caracterizados el primero por la aplicación de políticas keynesianas, y el segundo por el predominio de estrategias monetaristas se constata en este trabajo, que la aplicación de políticas monetarias coincide con la agudización del desempleo, la disminución en el ritmo de crecimiento y el aumento sistemático de la inflación. Del análisis se concluye que: el crecimiento de los precios ocurre sin que haya un aumento previo de la oferta monetaria, el crecimiento de los medios de pago es un proceso endógeno causado por las necesidades de crédito del sistema, la velocidad de crecimiento deldinero se explica por cambios previos y simultáneos de los precios, sin que haya evidencia de causaciones reciproca, y que la aceleración de la inflación es inversa a los medios de pago reales, es decir, que las medidas contraccionistas tienden a generar mayor inflación. Las teorías postkeynesianas de la inversión y la teoría del circuito proporcionan una explicación: la restricción monetaria reduce el crédito privado yobliga a las empresas a elevar los precios para financiar sus contratos y compromisos de gastos; lo cual disminuye el volumen de ventas, frena la inversión y justifica un menor crecimiento.

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    File URL: http://www.fce.unal.edu.co/media/files/documentos/Cuadernos/15/v11n15_lorente_1991.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by UN - RCE - CID in its journal REVISTA CUADERNOS DE ECONOMÍA.

    Volume (Year): (1991)
    Issue (Month): ()
    Pages:

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    Handle: RePEc:col:000093:008288

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    Related research

    Keywords: Cuadernos de Economía; 11(15); 1991.;

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    1. Stockman, Alan C., 1981. "Anticipated inflation and the capital stock in a cash in-advance economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 387-393.
    2. Tsiang, S C, 1980. "Keynes's "Finance" Demand for Liquidity, Robertson's Loanable Funds Theory, and Friedman's Monetarism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 94(3), pages 467-91, May.
    3. King, Robert G & Plosser, Charles I, 1984. "Money, Credit, and Prices in a Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 363-80, June.
    4. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
    5. Sims, Christopher A, 1972. "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 540-52, September.
    6. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
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    8. Jerome L. Stein, 1979. "The Acceleration of Inflation," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 2(1), pages 26-42, October.
    9. Miguel Sidrauski, 1967. "Inflation and Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75, pages 796.
    10. Lilien, David M, 1982. "Sectoral Shifts and Cyclical Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(4), pages 777-93, August.
    11. Williamson, Stephen D, 1987. "Financial Intermediation, Business Failures, and Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(6), pages 1196-1216, December.
    12. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
    13. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1989. "Interpreting the evidence on money-income causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 161-181, January.
    14. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1983. "Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 39-69, February.
    15. Basil J. Moore, 1983. "Unpacking the Post Keynesian Black Box: Bank Lending and the Money Supply," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 5(4), pages 537-556, July.
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