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Ambiguity, monetary policy and trend inflation

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  • Masolo, Riccardo M.
  • Monti, Francesca

Abstract

Allowing for ambiguity, or Knightian uncertainty, about the behavior of the policymaker helps explain the evolution of trend inflation in the US in a simple new-Keynesian model, without resorting to exogenous changes in the inflation target. Using Blue Chip survey data to gauge the degree of private sector confidence, our model helps reconcile the difference between target inflation and the inflation trend measured in the data. We also show how, in the presence of ambiguity, it is optimal for policymakers to lean against the private sectors pessimistic expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Masolo, Riccardo M. & Monti, Francesca, 2017. "Ambiguity, monetary policy and trend inflation," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86165, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:86165
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    Cited by:

    1. Martin Seneca, 2020. "Risk Shocks and Monetary Policy in the New Normal," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(6), pages 185-232, December.
    2. Yoo, Donghoon, 2019. "Ambiguous information, permanent income, and consumption fluctuations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 79-96.
    3. Baqaee, David Rezza, 2020. "Asymmetric inflation expectations, downward rigidity of wages, and asymmetric business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 174-193.
    4. Milos Borozan & Loreta Cannito & Barbara Luppi, 2022. "A tale of two ambiguities: A conceptual overview of findings from economics and psychology," Journal of Behavioral Economics for Policy, Society for the Advancement of Behavioral Economics (SABE), vol. 6(S1), pages 11-21, July.
    5. Le Thanh Ha & To Trung Thanh & Doan Ngoc Thang, 2021. "Welfare costs of monetary policy uncertainty in the economy with shifting trend inflation," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(1), pages 126-154, February.
    6. Hasui, Kohei, 2020. "A Note On Robust Monetary Policy And Non-Zero Trend Inflation," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(6), pages 1574-1594, September.
    7. Claudio Michelacci & Luigi Paciello, 2020. "Aggregate Risk or Aggregate Uncertainty? Evidence from UK Households," EIEF Working Papers Series 2006, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised Apr 2020.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ambiguity aversion; monetary policy; trend inflation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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