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Modelling Small Economy Exports : The Case of Singapore

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  • Tilak Abeysinghe

    (Singapore Centre for Applied and Policy Economics)

  • Keen Meng Choy

Abstract

This paper sheds further light on the debate spearheaded by Riedel (1988) on the specification of a small country export function. The theoretical and empirical analysis in the paper shows that while the price-taker assumption cannot be rejected, the export function for Singapore should not be construed as a standard export supply equation. As argued by Kapur (1983) instead, it is an export function with both demand and supply factors playing a role. We arrived at the final model specification by taking into consideration changes in the import content of exports over time. The paper also provides a new methodology for deriving a quarterly series of manu7facturing net capital stock.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by East Asian Bureau of Economic Research in its series Trade Working Papers with number 21980.

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Date of creation: Jan 2005
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Handle: RePEc:eab:tradew:21980

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Keywords: price taker; demand constraint; export function; import content; restricted cointegrating space;

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References

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  1. Riedel, James, 1984. "Trade as the Engine of Growth in Developing Countries, Revisited," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 94(373), pages 56-73, March.
  2. Athukorala, Premachandra & Riedel, James, 1994. "Demand and Supply Factors in the Determination of NIE Exports: A Simultaneous Error-Correction Model for Hong Kong: A Comment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(427), pages 1411-14, November.
  3. Harris, D., 1996. "Principal Components Analysis of Cointegrated Time Series," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 2/96, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  4. Muscatelli, V A & Srinivasan, T G & Vines, D, 1992. "Demand and Supply Factors in the Determination of NIE Exports: A Simultaneous Error-Correction Model for Hong Kong," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(415), pages 1467-77, November.
  5. Riedel, James, 1988. "The Demand for LDC Exports of Manufactures: Estimates from Hong Kong," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(389), pages 138-48, March.
  6. Muscatelli, Vito Antonio & Srinivasan, T G & Vines, David, 1992. "Demand and Supply Factors in the Determination of NIE Exports: A Simultaneous Error-Correction Model for Hong Kong Exports," CEPR Discussion Papers 671, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. repec:cup:etheor:v:13:y:1997:i:4:p:529-57 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Kapur, Basant K., 1983. "A short-term analytical model of the Singapore economy," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 355-376, June.
  9. Tilak Abeysinghe & Tan Lin Yeok, 1998. "Exchange rate appreciation and export competitiveness. The case of Singapore," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 51-55.
  10. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1992. "Some Exact Distribution Theory for Maximum Likelihood Estimators of Cointegrating Coefficients in Error Correction Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1039, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  11. Prema-Chandra Athukorala & James Riedel, 1996. "Modelling NIE exports: Aggregation, quantitative restrictions and choice of econometric methodology," The Journal of Development Studies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 81-98.
  12. Muscatelli, Vito Antonio & Srinivasan, T G & Vines, David, 1990. "The Empirical Modelling of NIE Exports: An Evaluation of Different Approaches," CEPR Discussion Papers 426, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Edward E. Leamer, 1979. "Is it a Demand Curve, or is it a Supply Curve?: Partial Identification Through Inequality Constraints," UCLA Economics Working Papers 153, UCLA Department of Economics.
  14. Abeysinghe, Tilak, 1998. "Forecasting Singapore's quarterly GDP with monthly external trade," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 505-513, December.
  15. Faini, Riccardo & Clavijo, Fernando & Senhadji-Semlali, Abdel, 1992. "The fallacy of composition argument : Is it relevant for LDCs' manufactures exports?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 865-882, May.
  16. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, July.
  17. Muscatelli, V A, 1994. "Demand and Supply Factors in the Determination of NIE Exports: A Reply," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(427), pages 1415-17, November.
  18. Gulasekaran Rajaguru & Tilak Abeysinghe, 2004. "Quarterly real GDP estimates for China and ASEAN4 with a forecast evaluation," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(6), pages 431-447.
  19. Premachandra Athukorala & James Riedel, 1991. "The small country assumption: A reassessment with evidence from Korea," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 127(1), pages 138-151, March.
  20. Tilak Abeysinghe, 2000. "Electronics and growth cycles in Singapore," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 32(13), pages 1657-1663.
  21. Muscatelli, Vito Antonio & Stevenson, Andrew A & Montagna, Catia, 1995. "Modeling Aggregate Manufactured Exports for Some Asian Newly Industrialized Economies," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(1), pages 147-55, February.
  22. Vines,David & Currie,David, 1995. "North?South Linkages and International Macroeconomic Policy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521462341.
  23. Houthakker, Hendrik S & Magee, Stephen P, 1969. "Income and Price Elasticities in World Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(2), pages 111-25, May.
  24. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-44, January.
  25. Goldstein, Morris & Khan, Mohsin S, 1978. "The Supply and Demand for Exports: A Simultaneous Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(2), pages 275-86, May.
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