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Valid Inference for a Class of Models Where Standard Inference Performs Poorly: Including Nonlinear Regression, ARMA, GARCH, and Unobserved Components

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  • Ma, Jun

    (Department of Economics, Finance and Legal Studies, University of Alabama)

  • Nelson, Charles R.

    (Department of Economics, University of Washington)

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File URL: http://www.ihs.ac.at/publications/eco/es-256.pdf
File Function: First version, 2010
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute for Advanced Studies in its series Economics Series with number 256.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ihs:ihsesp:256

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Related research

Keywords: ARMA; unobserved components; state space; GARCH; zero-information-limit-condition;

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References

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  1. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
  2. Harvey, A C, 1985. "Trends and Cycles in Macroeconomic Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(3), pages 216-27, June.
  3. Ravi Bansal & Amir Yaron, 2004. "Risks for the Long Run: A Potential Resolution of Asset Pricing Puzzles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1481-1509, 08.
  4. R. Mehra & E. Prescott, 2010. "The equity premium: a puzzle," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1401, David K. Levine.
  5. Jean-Marie Dufour, 1997. "Some Impossibility Theorems in Econometrics with Applications to Structural and Dynamic Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(6), pages 1365-1388, November.
  6. Charles Nelson & Richard Startz, 2007. "The Zero-Information-Limit-Condition and Spurious Inference in Weakly Identified Models," Working Papers UWEC-2006-07-P, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  7. James C. Morley & Charles Nelson & Eric Zivot, 2000. "Why Are Beveridge-Nelson and Unobserved-Component Decompositions of GDP So Different?," Working Papers 0013, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  8. Clark, Peter K, 1987. "The Cyclical Component of U.S. Economic Activity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 797-814, November.
  9. Charles R. Nelson, 1987. "Spurious Trend and Cycle in the State Space Decomposition of a Time Series with a Unit Root," NBER Technical Working Papers 0063, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Bollerslev, Tim, 1987. "A Conditionally Heteroskedastic Time Series Model for Speculative Prices and Rates of Return," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 542-47, August.
  11. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 33-49, Winter.
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Cited by:
  1. Donald W.K. Andrews & Xu Cheng, 2011. "GMM Estimation and Uniform Subvector Inference with Possible Identification Failure," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1828, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jan 2013.

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