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The reaction function channel of monetary policy and the financial cycle

Author

Listed:
  • Andrew Filardo

    (Bank for International Settlements & IMF)

  • Paul Hubert

    (Sciences Po, OFCE)

  • Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul

    (Bank for International Settlements)

Abstract

This paper examines whether monetary policy reaction function matters for financial stability. We measure how responsive the Federal Reserve’s policy appears to be to imbalances in the equity, housing and credit markets. We find that changes in these policy sensitivities predict the later development of financial imbalances. When monetary policy appears to respond more countercyclically to market overheating, imbalances tend to decline over time. This effect is distinct from that of current and anticipated interest rate levels – the risk-taking channel. The evidence highlights the importance of a “policy reaction function” channel of monetary policy in shaping the financial cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Filardo & Paul Hubert & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2019. "The reaction function channel of monetary policy and the financial cycle," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2019-16, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    • Handle: RePEc:fce:doctra:1916
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    3. Arnold Segawa, 2021. "Causality Analysis of South Africa Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Statements and Communication," International Journal of Finance & Banking Studies, Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 10(4), pages 55-74, October.
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    6. Luigi Bonatti & Andrea Fracasso, 2020. "The Covid-19 Crisis, Italy and Ms Merkel’s Turnaround: Will the EU Ever be the Same Again?," EconPol Policy Reports 25, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Policy reaction function channel; asset price booms; credit booms; monetary policy; financial cycles; time-varying model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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