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Common and Spatial Drivers in Regional Business Cycles

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  • Artis, Michael J
  • Dreger, Christian
  • Kholodilin, Konstantin

Abstract

We examine real business cycle convergence for 41 euro area regions and 48 US states. Results obtained by a panel model with spatial correlation indicate that the relevance of common business cycle factors is rather stable over the past two decades in the euro area and the US. Ongoing business cycle convergence often detected in cross-country data is not confirmed at the regional level. The degree of synchronization across the euro area is similar to that to be found for the US states. Thus, the lack of convergence does not seem to be an impediment to a common monetary policy.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 7206.

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Date of creation: Mar 2009
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7206

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Keywords: Business cycle convergence; Spatial correlation; spatial panel model;

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References

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  1. Artis, Michael J & Krolzig, Hans-Martin & Toro, Juan, 1999. "The European Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 2242, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Mark D. Partridge & Dan S. Rickman, 2005. "Regional cyclical asymmetries in an optimal currency area: an analysis using US state data," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(3), pages 373-397, July.
  3. Fabio Canova & Matteo Ciccarelli & Eva Ortega, 2003. "Similarities and convergence in G-7 cycles," Economics Working Papers 924, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Aug 2004.
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  7. Gabriele Tondl & Iulia Traistaru-Siedschlag, 2006. "Regional growth cycle synchronisation with the Euro Area," Papers WP173, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  8. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Understanding Changes in International Business Cycle Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 9859, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Artis, Michael J & Zhang, W, 1997. "International Business Cycles and the ERM: Is There a European Business Cycle?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(1), pages 1-16, January.
  10. Badi Baltagi & Dong Li, 2006. "Prediction in the Panel Data Model with Spatial Correlation: the Case of Liquor," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 175-185.
  11. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy M. Piger & Howard J. Wall, 2004. "Business cycle phases in U.S. states," Working Papers 2003-011, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  12. Artis, Michael J & Okubo, Toshihiro, 2008. "Globalization and Business Cycle Transmission," CEPR Discussion Papers 7041, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2000. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 440, Boston College Department of Economics.
  14. Gerald Carlino & Robert Defina, 1998. "The Differential Regional Effects Of Monetary Policy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 572-587, November.
  15. Fratantoni, Michael & Schuh, Scott, 2003. " Monetary Policy, Housing, and Heterogeneous Regional Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(4), pages 557-89, August.
  16. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2003. "International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1216-1239, September.
  17. Michael S. Hanson & Erik Hurst & Ki Young Park, 2006. "Does Monetary Policy Help Least Those Who Need It Most?," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2006-006, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
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Cited by:
  1. Juergen Bierbaumer-Polly, 2012. "Regional and Sectoral Business Cycles - Key Features for the Austrian economy," EcoMod2012 4074, EcoMod.
  2. Correia, L. & Gouveia, S., 2013. "Business cycle synchronisation at the regional level: evidence for the Portuguese regions," Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 13(1), pages 91-104.

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