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Money, housing, and inflation in China

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  • Zhang, Chengsi

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship among money, housing, and consumer price inflation in China since 1998. We use a standard multivariate dynamic model and show that when goods prices are sticky, monetary growth is initially transmitted to the real economy via changes in house prices; the changes in house prices are then transmitted to consumer price inflation in China. The results indicate that the recent real estate market boom, mainly driven by excessive monetary growth, dominates the underlying pattern of inflation behavior in China. Relevant policy implications are also discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Chengsi, 2013. "Money, housing, and inflation in China," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 75-87.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:35:y:2013:i:1:p:75-87
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2012.04.006
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    Cited by:

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    2. He, Ling-Yun & Wen, Xing-Chun, 2017. "Population growth, interest rate, and housing tax in the transitional China," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 469(C), pages 305-312.
    3. Fong Kean Yan & Yap Lya Keng & Kwek Kien Teng, 2016. "Empirical Analysis of House Price Bubble: A Case Study on Malaysia," International Journal of Business and Management, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 11(12), pages 127-127, November.
    4. Gregory C. Chow & Linlin Niu, 2015. "Housing Prices in Urban China as Determined by Demand and Supply," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(1), pages 1-16, February.
    5. Guo, Shen & Jiang, Zheng & Shi, Huimin, 2018. "The business cycle implications of bank discrimination in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 264-278.
    6. O. Evans, 2019. "Money, Inflation and Output in Nigeria and South Africa: Could Friedman and Schwartz Be Right?," Journal of African Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 392-406, July.
    7. Chien-Fu Chen & Shu-hen Chiang, 2020. "Time-varying spillovers among first-tier housing markets in China," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 57(4), pages 844-864, March.
    8. Yongheng Deng & Eric Girardin & Roselyne Joyeux, 2015. "Fundamentals and the Volatility of Real Estate Prices in China: A Sequential Modelling Strategy," Working Papers 222015, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    9. Deng, Yongheng & Girardin, Eric & Joyeux, Roselyne, 2018. "Fundamentals and the volatility of real estate prices in China: A sequential modelling strategy," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 205-222.
    10. Pei Yin & Jing Cheng & Miaojuan Peng, 2022. "Analyzing the Passenger Flow of Urban Rail Transit Stations by Using Entropy Weight-Grey Correlation Model: A Case Study of Shanghai in China," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(19), pages 1-23, September.
    11. Wen, Xing-Chun & He, Ling-Yun, 2015. "Housing demand or money supply? A new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model on China’s housing market fluctuations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 432(C), pages 257-268.
    12. Liang, Wenquan & Lu, Ming & Zhang, Hang, 2016. "Housing prices raise wages: Estimating the unexpected effects of land supply regulation in China," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 70-81.
    13. Fang, Debin & Hao, Peng & Hao, Jian, 2019. "Study of the influence mechanism of China's electricity consumption based on multi-period ST-LMDI model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 730-743.
    14. Shu-hen Chiang, 2014. "Housing Markets in China and Policy Implications: Comovement or Ripple Effect," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 22(6), pages 103-120, November.
    15. Yii, Kwang-Jing & Tan, Chai-Thing & Ho, Wing-Ken & Kwan, Xiao-Hui & Nerissa, Feng-Ting Shim & Tan, Yan-Yi & Wong, Kar-Horn, 2022. "Land availability and housing price in China: Empirical evidence from nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL)," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    16. Diandian Ma & Benfu Lv & Xuerong Li & Xiuting Li & Shuqin Liu, 2023. "Heterogeneous Impacts of Policy Sentiment with Different Themes on Real Estate Market: Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-21, January.
    17. Cheng-Wen Lee & Shu-Hen Chiang & Zhong-Qin Wen, 2023. "Pursuing the Sustainability of Real Estate Market: The Case of Chinese Land Resources Diversification," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-19, March.
    18. Shu-hen Chiang, 2016. "Rising residential rents in Chinese mega cities: The role of monetary policy," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 53(16), pages 3493-3509, December.
    19. Su, Chi-Wei & Wang, Xiao-Qing & Tao, Ran & Chang, Hsu-Ling, 2019. "Does money supply drive housing prices in China?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 85-94.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Money; Real estate; Monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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