IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/lauspo/v113y2022ics0264837721006116.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Land availability and housing price in China: Empirical evidence from nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL)

Author

Listed:
  • Yii, Kwang-Jing
  • Tan, Chai-Thing
  • Ho, Wing-Ken
  • Kwan, Xiao-Hui
  • Nerissa, Feng-Ting Shim
  • Tan, Yan-Yi
  • Wong, Kar-Horn

Abstract

Housing cost in China has reached an all-time high, preventing millions of people from purchasing a home. Land is a pre-requisite for the housing market. Land-relevant factors such as land regulation, land supply, land price, land use, and mixed land uses have been discussed with respect to land availability and China’s housing price. A nonlinear relationship that affects housing price and land availability is known as the asymmetric effect. Hence, the objective of this study is to investigate the asymmetric effect of land availability on housing price, taking into account GDP, inflation, and interest rate. The NARDL model is employed using the quarterly data from 2005:Q2 to 2017:Q4. The results prove that land availability possesses an asymmetric effect on China’s housing price in the long run. The positive changes in land availability possess a greater effect on the housing price than the negative changes in land availability do. This result implies that policy makers should be inclined to increase the land availability to lower the housing price rather than reducing the land availability to evade housing price hikes. Last, for policy implementation, policy makers should reconsider the demanders’ preferences, the development of mixed land use, and separate regulation of different regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Yii, Kwang-Jing & Tan, Chai-Thing & Ho, Wing-Ken & Kwan, Xiao-Hui & Nerissa, Feng-Ting Shim & Tan, Yan-Yi & Wong, Kar-Horn, 2022. "Land availability and housing price in China: Empirical evidence from nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL)," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:lauspo:v:113:y:2022:i:c:s0264837721006116
    DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2021.105888
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264837721006116
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.landusepol.2021.105888?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Danya Kim & Jangik Jin, 2019. "The Effect of Land Use on Housing Price and Rent: Empirical Evidence of Job Accessibility and Mixed Land Use," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-18, February.
    2. Balázs Égert & Dubravko Mihaljek, 2007. "Determinants of House Prices in Central and Eastern Europe," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 49(3), pages 367-388, September.
    3. Gao Lu Zou & Kwong Wing Chau, 2015. "Determinants and Sustainability of House Prices: The Case of Shanghai, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-25, April.
    4. Du, Hongyan & Ma, Yongkai & An, Yunbi, 2011. "The impact of land policy on the relation between housing and land prices: Evidence from China," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 19-27, February.
    5. Gilberto Libanio, 2005. "Unit roots in macroeconomic time series: theory, implications, and evidence," Nova Economia, Economics Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil), vol. 15(3), pages 145-176, September.
    6. Kostas Tsatsaronis & Haibin Zhu, 2004. "What drives housing price dynamics: cross-country evidence," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    7. Li, Yaoyao & Zhu, Daolin & Zhao, Jiangmeng & Zheng, Xiaodong & Zhang, Lanyue, 2020. "Effect of the housing purchase restriction policy on the Real Estate Market: Evidence from a typical suburb of Beijing, China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    8. Zabel, Jeffrey & Dalton, Maurice, 2011. "The impact of minimum lot size regulations on house prices in Eastern Massachusetts," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 571-583.
    9. Kaiji Chen & Yi Wen, 2017. "The Great Housing Boom of China," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 73-114, April.
    10. He, Ling-Yun & Wen, Xing-Chun, 2017. "Population growth, interest rate, and housing tax in the transitional China," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 469(C), pages 305-312.
    11. Kearl, J R, 1979. "Inflation, Mortgages, and Housing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 1115-1138, October.
    12. Wenli Li & Rui Yao, 2007. "The Life‐Cycle Effects of House Price Changes," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(6), pages 1375-1409, September.
    13. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    14. Theodore Panagiotidis & Panagiotis Printzis, 2016. "On the macroeconomic determinants of the housing market in Greece: a VECM approach," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 387-409, July.
    15. Murray, Michael P. & Sun, Guoqing, 2017. "The demand for space in China," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 214-222.
    16. Xing Su & Zhu Qian, 2020. "State Intervention in Land Supply and Its Impact on Real Estate Investment in China: Evidence from Prefecture-Level Cities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-15, January.
    17. Aura, Saku & Davidoff, Thomas, 2008. "Supply constraints and housing prices," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 275-277, May.
    18. Bajari, Patrick & Benkard, C. Lanier & Krainer, John, 2005. "House prices and consumer welfare," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 474-487, November.
    19. Wu, Jing & Gyourko, Joseph & Deng, Yongheng, 2012. "Evaluating conditions in major Chinese housing markets," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 531-543.
    20. Kim, Bong Han & Min, Hong-Ghi, 2011. "Household lending, interest rates and housing price bubbles in Korea: Regime switching model and Kalman filter approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1415-1423, May.
    21. Wenli Li & Rui Yao, 2007. "The Life-Cycle Effects of House Price Changes," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(6), pages 1375-1409, September.
    22. Quigley, John M. & Rosenthal, Larry A., 2005. "The Effects of Land-Use Regulation on the Price of Housing: What Do We Know? What Can We Learn?," Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy, Working Paper Series qt90m9g90w, Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy.
    23. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 1979-1990.
    24. Yongheng Deng & Joseph Gyourko & Jing Wu, 2012. "Land and House Price Measurement in China," NBER Working Papers 18403, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. S Cook, 2001. "Finite-sample critical values of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller statistic: a note on lag order," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 6(2), pages 31-46, September.
    26. Edward Glaeser & Wei Huang & Yueran Ma & Andrei Shleifer, 2017. "A Real Estate Boom with Chinese Characteristics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(1), pages 93-116, Winter.
    27. Casiano Flores, Cesar & Tan, Evrim & Buntinx, Ine & Crompvoets, Joep & Stöcker, Claudia & Zevenbergen, Jaap, 2020. "Governance assessment of the UAVs implementation in Rwanda under the fit-for-purpose land administration approach," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    28. Zhou, Qian & Shao, Qinglong & Zhang, Xiaoling & Chen, Jie, 2020. "Do housing prices promote total factor productivity? Evidence from spatial panel data models in explaining the mediating role of population density," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    29. Michael J. Potepan, 1996. "Explaining Intermetropolitan Variation in Housing Prices, Rents and Land Prices," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 24(2), pages 219-245.
    30. Zhang, Yanbing & Hua, Xiuping & Zhao, Liang, 2012. "Exploring determinants of housing prices: A case study of Chinese experience in 1999–2010," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2349-2361.
    31. Tsangyao Chang & Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne & Rangan Gupta, 2014. "The causal relationship between house prices and growth in the nine provinces of South Africa: evidence from panel - Granger causality tests," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 6(4), pages 345-358.
    32. Reshma Shrestha & Jaap Zevenbergen & Fahria Masum & Mahesh Banskota, 2018. "“Action Space” Based Urban Land Governance Pattern: Implication in Managing Informal Settlements from the Perspective of Low-Income Housing," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-19, June.
    33. Agnello, Luca & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2011. "Booms and busts in housing markets: Determinants and implications," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 171-190, September.
    34. Tomás Del Barrio Castro & Paulo M. M. Rodrigues & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2015. "On the Behaviour of Phillips–Perron Tests in the Presence of Persistent Cycles," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 77(4), pages 495-511, August.
    35. Chou, W L & Shih, Y C, 1995. "Hong Kong Housing Markets: Overview, Tenure Choice, and Housing Demand," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 7-21, January.
    36. Cochrane, John H., 1991. "A critique of the application of unit root tests," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 275-284, April.
    37. Glaeser, Edward L & Gyourko, Joseph & Saks, Raven, 2005. "Why Is Manhattan So Expensive? Regulation and the Rise in Housing Prices," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 48(2), pages 331-369, October.
    38. Katrakilidis, Constantinos & Trachanas, Emmanouil, 2012. "What drives housing price dynamics in Greece: New evidence from asymmetric ARDL cointegration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1064-1069.
    39. N. Apergis & A. Rezitis, 2003. "Housing prices and macroeconomic factors in Greece: prospects within the EMU," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(12), pages 799-804.
    40. Zhang, Chengsi, 2013. "Money, housing, and inflation in China," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 75-87.
    41. Ihlanfeldt, Keith R., 2007. "The effect of land use regulation on housing and land prices," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(3), pages 420-435, May.
    42. Chang, Yuk Ying & Anderson, Hamish & Shi, Song, 2018. "China and international housing price growth," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 294-312.
    43. Zahirovich-Herbert, Velma & Gibler, Karen M., 2014. "The effect of new residential construction on housing prices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 1-18.
    44. Kok, Nils & Monkkonen, Paavo & Quigley, John M., 2014. "Land use regulations and the value of land and housing: An intra-metropolitan analysis," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 136-148.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sisman, S. & Aydinoglu, A.C., 2022. "Improving performance of mass real estate valuation through application of the dataset optimization and Spatially Constrained Multivariate Clustering Analysis," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    2. Xinyu Zhuang & Li Zhang & Jie Lu, 2022. "Past—Present—Future: Urban Spatial Succession and Transition of Rail Transit Station Zones in Japan," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(20), pages 1-35, October.
    3. Liu, Keling & Chen, Bin & Wang, Saige & Wang, Hao, 2023. "An urban waterlogging footprint accounting based on emergy: A case study of Beijing," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 348(C).
    4. Yiyi Chen & Colin A. Jones & Neil A. Dunse & Enquan Li & Ye Liu, 2023. "Housing Prices and the Characteristics of Nearby Green Space: Does Landscape Pattern Index Matter? Evidence from Metropolitan Area," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-17, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fan, Jianshuang & Zhou, Lin & Yu, Xiaofen & Zhang, Yanjiang, 2021. "Impact of land quota and land supply structure on China’s housing prices: Quasi-natural experiment based on land quota policy adjustment," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    2. Michael Manville & Michael Lens & Paavo Monkkonen, 2022. "Zoning and affordability: A reply to Rodríguez-Pose and Storper," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 59(1), pages 36-58, January.
    3. Katrakilidis, Constantinos & Trachanas, Emmanouil, 2012. "What drives housing price dynamics in Greece: New evidence from asymmetric ARDL cointegration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1064-1069.
    4. Tripathi, Sabyasachi, 2019. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Housing Prices: A Cross Country Level Analysis," MPRA Paper 98089, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Mei Liu & Qing-Ping Ma, 2021. "Determinants of house prices in China: a panel-corrected regression approach," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 67(1), pages 47-72, August.
    6. Mobeen Ur Rehman & Sajid Ali & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad, 2020. "Asymmetric Nonlinear Impact of Oil Prices and Inflation on Residential Property Prices: a Case of US, UK and Canada," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 61(1), pages 39-54, June.
    7. Han, Wenjing & Zhang, Xiaoling & Zheng, Xian, 2020. "Land use regulation and urban land value: Evidence from China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    8. Theodore Panagiotidis & Panagiotis Printzis, 2016. "On the macroeconomic determinants of the housing market in Greece: a VECM approach," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 387-409, July.
    9. Tafirenyika Sunde & Paul-Francois Muzindutsi, 2017. "Determinants of house prices and new construction activity: An empirical investigation of the Namibian housing market," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 51(3), pages 389-407, July-Sept.
    10. Lima, Ricardo Carvalho de Andrade & Silveira Neto, Raul da Mota, 2019. "Zoning ordinances and the housing market in developing countries: Evidence from Brazilian municipalities," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    11. Deng, Yongheng & Girardin, Eric & Joyeux, Roselyne, 2018. "Fundamentals and the volatility of real estate prices in China: A sequential modelling strategy," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 205-222.
    12. Mao, Guangyu & Shen, Yan, 2019. "Bubbles or fundamentals? Modeling provincial house prices in China allowing for cross-sectional dependence," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 53-64.
    13. Liang, Wenquan & Lu, Ming & Zhang, Hang, 2016. "Housing prices raise wages: Estimating the unexpected effects of land supply regulation in China," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 70-81.
    14. Koster, Hans R.A. & van Ommeren, Jos & Rietveld, Piet, 2012. "Bombs, boundaries and buildings," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 631-641.
    15. Douglas J. Krupka & Kwame N. Donaldson, 2013. "Wages, Rents, And Heterogeneous Moving Costs," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 51(1), pages 844-864, January.
    16. Ming Qi, 2017. "The Determinants of Chinese Property Prices," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(1), pages 194-201, January.
    17. Zhang, Junfu, 2023. "JUE Insight: Measuring the Stringency of Land Use Regulation Using a Shadow Price Approach," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    18. Zhang, Dingsheng & Cheng, Wenli & Ng, Yew-Kwang, 2013. "Increasing returns, land use controls and housing prices in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 789-795.
    19. Molloy, Raven, 2020. "The effect of housing supply regulation on housing affordability: A review," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    20. Murray, Cameron & Phibbs, Peter, 2022. "Evidence-lite zone: The weak evidence behind the economic case against planning regulation," OSF Preprints 69m23, Center for Open Science.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Land availability; Housing price; Asymmetric effect; Nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL); China;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • R14 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Land Use Patterns
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:lauspo:v:113:y:2022:i:c:s0264837721006116. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joice Jiang (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/land-use-policy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.