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State Intervention in Land Supply and Its Impact on Real Estate Investment in China: Evidence from Prefecture-Level Cities

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  • Xing Su

    (School of Planning, University of Waterloo, 200 University Ave W, Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1, Canada)

  • Zhu Qian

    (School of Planning, University of Waterloo, 200 University Ave W, Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1, Canada)

Abstract

State intervention in land supply can be a powerful tool in shaping real estate investment. Yet, few studies have examined the effect of central state intervention on land supply at the municipal level and the impact of land supply on real estate investment with respect to different tiers of prefecture-level cities in China. Varying central–local dynamics of land supply in different tiers of cities, and the often taken-for-granted relationship between land supply and real estate investment, warrant further investigation. This study aims to fill these gaps. It is found that the multi-purposed central land policy and the varying land leasing strategies adopted by different tiers of cities contribute to the varying land supply trajectories, calling for more nuanced and better-tailored central land policies that focus on the socioeconomic conditions of cities. The general significant and positive correlation between land supply and real estate investment, revealed by a panel regression analysis incorporating 280 prefecture-level Chinese cities, suggests that land supply control can function as a critical tool in governing real estate investment in China, which also sheds light on the governance and promotion of sustainable real estate markets in other parts of the world. This study also reveals a higher possibility of land speculation in first- and second-tier cities than that of low-tier cities. The nuanced correlations between land supply and real estate investment and the varying land development strategies employed in different tiers of Chinese cities imply that the effectiveness of land supply intervention in shaping healthy real estate investment may depend on local contingencies, calling for meticulous and tailored governance on land supply and real estate investment behaviors.

Suggested Citation

  • Xing Su & Zhu Qian, 2020. "State Intervention in Land Supply and Its Impact on Real Estate Investment in China: Evidence from Prefecture-Level Cities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-15, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:3:p:1019-:d:314861
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    2. Jing Cheng & Xiaowei Luo, 2022. "Analyzing the Land Leasing Behavior of the Government of Beijing, China, via the Multinomial Logit Model," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-14, March.
    3. Yii, Kwang-Jing & Tan, Chai-Thing & Ho, Wing-Ken & Kwan, Xiao-Hui & Nerissa, Feng-Ting Shim & Tan, Yan-Yi & Wong, Kar-Horn, 2022. "Land availability and housing price in China: Empirical evidence from nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL)," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    4. Ke Wang & Jianjun Zhang & Wenhua Guo & Zhen Liu & Ze Xu, 2023. "A Perception and Judgement of Contributing Factors for Allocating Urban Residential Land: A Systematic Review and Statistical Analysis," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-22, January.
    5. Weiwei Li & Lisheng Weng & Kaixu Zhao & Sidong Zhao & Ping Zhang, 2021. "Research on the Evaluation of Real Estate Inventory Management in China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-29, November.
    6. Diandian Ma & Benfu Lv & Xuerong Li & Xiuting Li & Shuqin Liu, 2023. "Heterogeneous Impacts of Policy Sentiment with Different Themes on Real Estate Market: Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-21, January.
    7. Wenbin Huang, 2022. "Government Land Regulations and Housing Supply Elasticity in Urban China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 30(4), pages 122-148, July.

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