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Why is the Hong Kong Housing Market Unaffordable? Some Stylized Facts and Estimations

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  • Charles Ka Yui Leung
  • Joe Cho Yiu Ng
  • Edward Tang

Abstract

The house price in Hong Kong is well-known to be "unaffordable." This paper argues that the commonly used house price-to-income ratio may be misleading in an economy with almost half of the population living in either public rental housing or subsidized ownership. Moreover, we re-focus on the relationships between economic fundamentals and the housing market of Hong Kong. While the aggregate GDP, population and longevity continue to grow, the real wage and household income fall behind. The trend component of the real GDP growth suffers a permanent downward shift after the first quarter of 1989 (a “political scar”). The trend component of real wage growth is close to zero, and the counterpart of real consumption and real investment decline steadily. Meanwhile, the trend component of the real housing rent and price display patterns that decouple from the macroeconomic variables. We also discuss the directions for future research.

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  • Charles Ka Yui Leung & Joe Cho Yiu Ng & Edward Tang, 2020. "Why is the Hong Kong Housing Market Unaffordable? Some Stylized Facts and Estimations," Globalization Institute Working Papers 380, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddgw:87846
    DOI: 10.24149/gwp380
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    1. T. Wing Lo & Gloria Hongyee Chan & Gabriel Kwun Wa Lee & Xin Guan & Sharon Ingrid Kwok, 2023. "Young people’s perceptions of the challenges and opportunities during the Mainland China–Hong Kong convergence," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-14, December.
    2. Charles Ka Yui Leung & Edward Chi Ho Tang, 2023. "The dynamics of the house price‐to‐income ratio: Theory and evidence," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 41(1), pages 61-78, January.
    3. Charles Ka Yui Leung & (single author only), 2021. "Handbook of Real Estate and Macroeconomics: An Introduction," ISER Discussion Paper 1137, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    4. Wong, Gary Wai Chung & Wong, Paulina Pui Yun & Chong, James Chit Ming, 2022. "Low-fidelity buyer seller simulations can encourage authentic learning experiences," International Review of Economics Education, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).

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    17. Nan-Kuang Chen & Charles Leung, 2008. "Asset Price Spillover, Collateral and Crises: with an Application to Property Market Policy," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 37(4), pages 351-385, November.
    18. Charles Leung, 2007. "Equilibrium Correlations of Asset Price and Return," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 233-256, February.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    wage index and household income; time series decomposition; migration; structural breaks; housing demand;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • J01 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics: General
    • R0 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General

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