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The Dynamics and Volatility of Commercial and Residential Property Prices: Theory and Evidence

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  • Kamhon Kan
  • Sunny Kai-Sun Kwong
  • Charles Ka-Yui Leung

Abstract

This article investigates the dynamics of property prices and their interaction with output growth in a general equilibrium model. Closed form solutions and testable hypotheses are derived from a mildly restricted version of the model. The testable hypotheses are broadly supported empirically. In particular, (1) the volatility of commercial property prices is higher than that of residential property prices, (2) each of the lagged, contemporary, and forward commercial property prices is positively correlated with residential property prices, (3) the contemporaneous covariance between the two property prices is larger than the lagged covariance, and (4) output growth is positively correlated with both property prices. These results are consistent with simulations results that are based on a more general specification of the model. Copyright Blackwell Publishers, 2004

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Journal of Regional Science.

Volume (Year): 44 (2004)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 95-123

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Handle: RePEc:bla:jregsc:v:44:y:2004:i:1:p:95-123

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  1. Bénassy, Jean-Pascal, 1993. "Money and wage contracts in an optimizing model of the business cycle," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9325, CEPREMAP.
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  3. Sunny Kai-Sun, Kwong & Charles Ka-Yui Leung, 1999. "Price Volatility of Commercial and Residential Property," Departmental Working Papers _114, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics.
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  6. Kamhon Kan & Sunny Kai-Sun Kwong & Charles Ka-Yui Leung, 2004. "The Dynamics and Volatility of Commercial and Residential Property Prices: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(1), pages 95-123.
  7. Hercowitz, Zvi & Sampson, Michael, 1991. "Output Growth, the Real Wage, and Employment Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1215-37, December.
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