Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

The Dynamics and Volatility of Commercial and Residential Property Prices: Theory and Evidence

Contents:

Author Info

  • Kamhon Kan

    ()
    (Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan)

  • Sunny Kai-Sun Kwong

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, Hong Kong)

  • Charles Ka-Yui Leung

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, Hong Kong)

Abstract

This paper investigates the dynamics of property prices and their interaction with output growth in a general equilibrium model. Closed form solutions and testable hypotheses are derived from a mildly restricted version of the model. The testable hypotheses are broadly supported empirically. In particular, (1) the volatility of commercial property prices is higher than that of residential property prices, (2) each of the lagged, contemporary, and forward commercial property prices is positively correlated with residential property prices, (3) the contemporaneous covariance between the two property prices is larger than the lagged covariance, and (4) output growth is positively correlated with both property prices. These results are consistent with simulations results that are based on a more general specification of the model.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.econ.sinica.edu.tw/upload/file/03-a004.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan in its series IEAS Working Paper : academic research with number 03-A004.

as in new window
Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:sin:wpaper:03-a004

Contact details of provider:
Phone: 886-2-27822791
Fax: 886-2-27853946
Email:
Web page: http://www.econ.sinica.edu.tw/index.php?foreLang=en
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: property price dynamics; co-movements; commercial and residential property prices;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Sergio T. Rebelo, 1992. "Long Run Policy Analysis and Long Run Growth," NBER Working Papers 3325, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Michael Gort & Jeremy Greenwood & Peter Rupert, 1998. "Measuring the rate of technological progress in structures," Working Paper 9806, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  3. Kamhon Kan & Sunny Kai-Sun Kwong & Charles Ka-Yui Leung, 2003. "The Dynamics and Volatility of Commercial and Residential Property Prices: Theory and Evidence," IEAS Working Paper : academic research 03-A004, Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan.
  4. Sven Rady, 1998. "Boom In, Bust Out: Young Households and the Housing Price Cycle," FMG Discussion Papers dp310, Financial Markets Group.
  5. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi, 1991. "The Allocation of Capital and Time over the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(6), pages 1188-214, December.
  6. Robert G. King & Sergio T. Rebelo, 2000. "Resuscitating Real Business Cycles," RCER Working Papers 467, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  7. Morris A. Davis & Jonathan Heathcote, 2005. "Housing And The Business Cycle," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 46(3), pages 751-784, 08.
  8. repec:fth:stanho:e-95-4 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Burnside, A Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sérgio, 1995. "Capital Utilization and Returns to Scale," CEPR Discussion Papers 1221, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Cassou, Steven P. & Lansing, Kevin J., 1998. "Optimal fiscal policy, public capital, and the productivity slowdown," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 911-935, June.
  11. Judson, Ruth A. & Owen, Ann L., 1999. "Estimating dynamic panel data models: a guide for macroeconomists," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 9-15, October.
  12. Benassy, Jean-Pascal, 1995. "Money and wage contracts in an optimizing model of the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 303-315, April.
  13. Glaeser, E.L. & Scheinkman, J.A., 1993. "Economic Growth in a Cross-Section of Cities," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1645, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  14. Hercowitz, Zvi & Sampson, Michael, 1991. "Output Growth, the Real Wage, and Employment Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1215-37, December.
  15. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
  16. Chen, Nan-Kuang, 2001. "Bank net worth, asset prices and economic activity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 415-436, October.
  17. Duncan Black & Vernon Henderson, 1999. "A Theory of Urban Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 252-284, April.
  18. Charles Ka Yui Leung, 2003. "Economic Growth And Increasing House Prices," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(2), pages 183-190, 06.
  19. Lau, Sau-Him Paul, 2002. "Further Inspection Of The Stochastic Growth Model By An Analytical Approach," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(05), pages 748-757, November.
  20. Tse, Chung Yi & Leung, Charles Ka Yui, 2002. "Increasing Wealth and Increasing Instability: The Role of Collateral," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 45-52, February.
  21. Baxter, Marianne, 1996. "Are Consumer Durables Important for Business Cycles?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 147-55, February.
  22. Dombrow, Jonathan & Knight, J R & Sirmans, C F, 1997. "Aggregation Bias in Repeat-Sales Indices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 14(1-2), pages 75-88, Jan.-Marc.
  23. Smith, Barton A & Campbell, John M, Jr, 1978. "Aggregation Bias and the Demand for Housing," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 19(2), pages 495-505, June.
  24. John Y. Campbell, 1992. "Inspecting the Mechanism: An Analytical Approach to the Stochastic Growth Model," NBER Working Papers 4188, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Randall S. Guttery & C. F. Sirmans, 1998. "Aggregation Bias in Price Indices for Multi-Family Rental Properties," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 15(3), pages 309-326.
  26. Anderson, G J, 1991. "Expenditure Allocation across Nondurables, Services, Durables and Savings: An Empirical Study of Separability in the Long Run," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(2), pages 153-68, April-Jun.
  27. Sunny Kai-Sun, Kwong & Charles Ka-Yui Leung, 1999. "Price Volatility of Commercial and Residential Property," Departmental Working Papers _114, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sin:wpaper:03-a004. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (HsiaoyunLiu).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.