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Availability of Credit and Loan Default: A Look at the Commercial Mortgage Supply Cycle

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Abstract

This study uses a structural equation approach to assess the presence of a credit supply effect in the commercial mortgage market and the lenders' ability to incorporate expectations about this effect into their lending policies. A credit supply effect is defined as the effect of mortgage supply on the level of loan defaults. The empirical analysis shows two important results. First, changes in loan defaults appear to be followed by changes in commercial mortgage supply with a lag of approximately four to five years. Second, lenders tend to behave myopically, failing to incorporate expectations about the credit supply effect into their lending policies. Additionally, a simulation suggests that adequate timing of the mortgage supply cycle is crucial in limiting the incidence of mortgage default.

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  • Luis C. Mejia, 1999. "Availability of Credit and Loan Default: A Look at the Commercial Mortgage Supply Cycle," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 18(1), pages 175-196.
    • Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:18:n:1:1999:p:175-196
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    Cited by:

    1. Kamhon Kan & Sunny Kai‐Sun Kwong & Charles Ka‐Yui Leung, 2004. "The Dynamics and Volatility of Commercial and Residential Property Prices: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(1), pages 95-123, February.
    2. Ron Donohue & Patric H. Hendershott, 2004. "Fund Flows and Commercial Real Estate Investment: Evidence from the Commercial Mortgage Market," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 26(4), pages 417-442.

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    JEL classification:

    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services

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