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Availability of Credit and Loan Default: A Look at the Commercial Mortgage Supply Cycle

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Author Info
Luis C. Mejia () (George Washington University Washington, DC 20052)
Abstract

This study uses a structural equation approach to assess the presence of a credit supply effect in the commercial mortgage market and the lenders' ability to incorporate expectations about this effect into their lending policies. A credit supply effect is defined as the effect of mortgage supply on the level of loan defaults. The empirical analysis shows two important results. First, changes in loan defaults appear to be followed by changes in commercial mortgage supply with a lag of approximately four to five years. Second, lenders tend to behave myopically, failing to incorporate expectations about the credit supply effect into their lending policies. Additionally, a simulation suggests that adequate timing of the mortgage supply cycle is crucial in limiting the incidence of mortgage default.

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File URL: http://aux.zicklin.baruch.cuny.edu/jrer/papers/pdf/past/vol18n01/v18p175.pdf
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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Real Estate Society in its journal Journal of Real Estate Research.

Volume (Year): 18 (1999)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 175-196
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Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:18:n:1:1999:p:175-196

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Postal: American Real Estate Society Clemson University School of Business & Behavioral Science Department of Finance 401 Sirrine Hall Clemson, SC 29634-1323
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Hillier, Brian & Ibrahimo, M V, 1993. "Asymmetric Information and Models of Credit Rationing," Bulletin of Economic Research, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(4), pages 271-304, October.
  2. Waldo L. Born & Stephen A. Pyhrr, 1994. "Real Estate Valuation: The Effect of Market and Property Cycles," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 9(4), pages 455-486. [Downloadable!]
  3. Ramon P. DeGennaro & Larry H.P. Lang & James B. Thomson, 1993. "Troubled Savings and Loan Institutions: Turnaround Strategies Under Insolvency," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 22(3), Fall.
  4. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1987. "The Causes and Consequences of the Dependence of Quality on Price," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 25(1), pages 1-48, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Brent W. Ambrose & John Benjamin & Peter Chinloy, 1996. "Credit Restrictions and the Market for Commercial Real Estate Loans," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 24(1), pages 1-22. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Kerry D. Vandell & Walter Barnes & David Hartzell & Dennis Kraft & William Wendt, 1993. "Commercial Mortgage Defaults: Proportional Hazards Estimation Using Individual Loan Histories," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 21(4), pages 451-480. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ron Donohue & Patric H. Hendershott, 2004. "Fund Flows and Commercial Real Estate Investment: Evidence from the Commercial Mortgage Market," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 26(4), pages 417-442. [Downloadable!]
  2. Bradford Case, 2003. "Loss characteristics of commercial real estate loan portfolios," Basel II White Paper 1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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