Commercial Mortgage-backed Securities (CMBS) Terminations, Regional and Property-Type Risk
AbstractOption theory predicts that mortgage default or prepayment will be exercised if the call or put option is “in the money.” We extend our analysis to commercial mortgages using data from commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS). The paper presents a model of the competing risks of mortgage termination (default and prepayment) using data from commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) deals. Our results show that the option model explains both default and prepayment for commercial mortgages. We find that loan specific variables (such as loan-to-value ratio, debt service coverage ratio, loan-rate spread and prepayment prevention) are important explanatory variables for both default and prepayment. We also find that default and prepayment vary across regions of the country; given that regional economies do not move in perfect lock-step, we would expect there to be cross-sectional variation in default rates. However, the degree of variation across regions in terms of prepayments is not as predictable. The largest differences are across property types, both in terms of default and prepayment risk.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics in its series Working Paper Series with number 2006-24.
Date of creation: Oct 2006
Date of revision:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Deng, Yongheng & Quigley, John M. & Van Order, Robert, 1999.
"Mortgage Terminations, Heterogeneity, and the Exercise of Mortgage Options,"
Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy, Working Paper Series
qt96r560pg, Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy.
- Yongheng Deng & John M. Quigley & Robert Van Order, 2000. "Mortgage Terminations, Heterogeneity and the Exercise of Mortgage Options," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(2), pages 275-308, March.
- Yongheng Deng & John M. Quigley & Robert Van Order, . "Mortgage Terminations, Heterogeneity and the Exercise of Mortgage Options," Zell/Lurie Center Working Papers 322, Wharton School Samuel Zell and Robert Lurie Real Estate Center, University of Pennsylvania.
- Ambrose, Brent W & Sanders, Anthony B, 2003. "Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities: Prepayment and Default," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 26(2-3), pages 179-96, March-May.
- Kerry D. Vandell, 1992. "Predicting Commercial Mortgage Foreclosure Experience," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 20(1), pages 55-88.
- Ciochetti, Brian A, et al, 2003. "A Proportional Hazards Model of Commercial Mortgage Default with Originator Bias," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 5-23, July.
- Lawrence Goldberg & Charles A. Capone, Jr., 2002. "A Dynamic Double-Trigger Model of Multifamily Mortgage Default," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 30(1), pages 85-113.
- Kerry D. Vandell & Walter Barnes & David Hartzell & Dennis Kraft & William Wendt, 1993. "Commercial Mortgage Defaults: Proportional Hazards Estimation Using Individual Loan Histories," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 21(4), pages 451-480.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.